Good afternoon, good morning, good evening, everyone and welcome to today's Window on Webcast. Today is Wednesday, January 22nd, 2024. My name is Jeanie Shu, I'm the Director of Economics, Strategy and Finance Center at the Conference Board and I will be your host today. Today, we will be talking about several topics that are according to the US and globally. So we'll discuss our findings from the latest C-Suite Outlook survey and then we'll turn our attention to the first two days of the new US administration. During this session, some of the questions that we'll discuss are which geopolitical events from wars in the Middle East and Ukraine to the potential to the potential for terrace and foreign orchestrated cyber attacks are causing CE OS the most anxiety. How serious do CE OS around the globe take the risk of global trade war and what preparations are they are making? The potential for global impact of the new administration in Washington and the prospects for the US budget, debt ceiling and a tax bill in the new administration in Congress. Today, it is my honor and my privilege to be joined by these two speakers. First, Chuck Mitchell. He is the author of the latest C-Suite Outlook report, and then David K Young, President of the Committee for Economic Development that is the Public Policy Center of the conference for. Welcome. Thanks. Looking forward to the show. It's going to be a wild 1 so everyone so but we're going to have a good time. We're going to actually there's a lot to address today as well. But before I even begin, let us let me to give you a gentle reminder that for credits and on demand, if you need attendance attendance certificate for this webcast, please click on the icon to download your certificate. At the end of the webcast. You may use the certificate to self apply for continuing education credits directly with your search certification provider. Also, this webcast is recorded and will be available about one to two days after the live broadcast, the live broadcast of this webcast. Also as a reminder, please use the Q and A box to answer to ask any questions. We will do our best to answer them during today's webcast. But folks, I will have to admit we have a jam packed webcast today and there's a lot of information for all of you to digest. And so please be mindful if we're not able to get to every question here, but thank you again for all for, for joining us today. All right, so let me just roll right in. I'm going to start with the like the first audience poll. So let me take a moment to to poll all of you and see where you are. I want to ask the following question. What do you think are the top external issues that CE OS see as having high impact in 25 in 2025? Is it supply chain disruptions, tensions between the US, EU and China, the recession, high labor costs regulation rapidly advancing AI and technology or other. So love to hear from you would love to see what you guys are thoughts are about this. I know it's you know, it's it could I mean, I'm possibly you think that every one of these things, but we do want to think like what we're goal. The goal is to see which one of these that you think will have like the what is the top external issue. OK. It would be great to hear from all of you. I, you know, I know it's well it's the middle of the week like and it's cold. I understand that too. So, so I would love to see this to hit about 50% of the results. But again, the question is, what do you think of the top external issues that CEOC is having a high impact in 2025? Again, it's supply chain disruptions, tensions between the USEU and China, the recession, high labor cost regulation and rapidly advancing AI and technology or other. So I'm going to close that poll now in 54321. All right, so here are results. What I am looking at, Sorry, it just takes me a bit to go through all of this. So really the tensions between US, EU and China is ranking as as coming in at number one at 30%. I also see rapidly at advancing technology at 26%, OK. And what's all what's here at the next one is supply chain disruptions, all of these things that we're actually going to talk about today as well. So I think we're following up at the end with regulations and then, you know, in recession. OK, actually I'm going to turn this over to Chuck and just and open this to him. What do you think? Thanks, Jenny. Yeah, I, the audience absolutely nailed it. I think the, the notion around the USEU, the China relationship, and that's something that's throughout it surfaces throughout this survey as issues of concern and issues of action. I think with the new US administration is probably heightened it to some extent. And also the AIAI is appears in this survey in, in numerous, numerous places from supply chain to HR to to to, to just about anything that that CE OS are looking to to, to grow within their organization. So yeah, I think it's absolutely right. It was spot on on on the selections definitely set up. OK, actually, so let me just dive if you don't mind. We're just going to dive right in and talk about the C-Suite outlook. So perhaps you can go through and just talk to us about the top external like issues that CEOs expect to have outsized impact on their businesses in 2025? Sure. Yeah, this is the 26th year that we have done this survey. It's a global survey this year 17 / 1700 C-Suite executives, 508 CEOs. So it's a good representation through of the global perspective. And So what we have here are these are the five areas of risk and we asked what the highest impact within each of those areas would be in 2025. And as you can see, global CEOs really do find that the USEU China relationship is, it is, is, is really going to have an impact going forward on, on the global business environment. Same. There's still lingering in their minds, there's still lingering concern about recession and an economic downturn. And that's we've seen that for the last few years in this We thought maybe it'd be if they'd check it this year, but the the political instability, the turmoil all around it is still have still have CE OS fairly cautious. There's a lot of concern about labor, labor shortages, higher labor costs and definitely regulation, regulation, regulation, something that we hear a lot about not only in their home countries, but also dealing cross-border with new with different regulations. So and the AI advancing AI technology, as I say is, is, is throughout the survey just make it appears in just about any function. And also there's concern about when I talk about labor, there's concerned about the long term demographic changes and that's not in places where you would expect like Japan, but it really is in the US and other other advanced economies, OK. So I can, if I can, ask one follow up question about geopolitical events and issues. So globally that you what was ranked number one for global events and for sorry, geopolitical events and and issues was the the USEU tensions and China tensions. However, and then #2 for globally was global, global political instability. However, for the US, it's actually flopped, right? So it was it was global political instability as #1 while USEU China tensions was #2 Any thoughts on that anything? Of note, no, I mean, I think that the, the notion around global instability, that's one of the main themes that goes throughout this survey. And that there's that, that notion, the economy slowing of a global economy is another issue. Again, as I said, labor is an issue and AI adoption is, is also a big issue. But I, you know, I think that that global instability kind of frames the, the entire slightest set of responses to the survey. It's it kind of permeates every, you know, every kind of response that Ceas have given us. OK. Just one more follow. I'm looking at each of these of these columns. One of the like those economic conditions you like we we've talked a little bit, you've touched a little bit about it, but were there any differences of note between with on a global scale versus on the US scale? So for economic conditions of on on the global scale, it was economic downturn slash recession, higher labor costs and inflation. Was there anything of note that you can see that you thought of versus what you saw for in the for US CE OS? I mean a lot of it is it, it just follows the regional kind of microeconomic climate in, in all these countries. I mean Europe, certainly Japan, labor costs, labor shortage, demographics are all like incredibly important in that country. Same for Europe again, as I said, you know in the developing developed economies it's, it's a big issue. But there is really like cluster around labor and that cluster around, around the economy, slowing economy. And you can see that some of the CEOs are certainly taking a a more defensive stance in in their approach and kind of things are a little bit in neutral, especially with the new US administration, a lot of concern, a lot of concern about how all this is going to play out vis a vis China. So and then I did want to just to touch base a little bit about the policy and globalization. Is there any like differences or that we you know for on between the USCEOS and just go on and CEOs on a global scale? Yeah, I think that's that's one of the more interesting response rate responses that we received in the survey. I mean, the USCEOS more than half, 51% I believe cited the US national debt as a major geopolitical risk. The rest of the world, not so much. But there is a concern about sovereign debt across the world, right. So we've seen that U.S. debt be an issue last year, but prior to that it, it really wasn't on anyone's radars. And that's the ticking time bomb. I think that is that that really has a high risk potential for the business environment. Got it. Understood, Jeannie. Can I just jump? In and go back to a point that Chuck made because I think it's worthwhile for the audience just to recognize when the survey took place which was the end of last year after the US election and we mentioned just this point around global political instability and I think it's worthwhile for everyone to be aware that it takes the survey took place on the heels of what was one of the most unique years in in history, I think over half the world's GDP went to the polls that's more than 4 billion people across more than 18 national elections so when they start looking at global political instability it's not a shock or surprise given number one what it was on the heels of to Trump taking office as a president-elect and now sitting in in the White House so I think these these factors all kind of combined to the kind of make that not too much of A shocking surprise when when we're speaking to CEO's. You know, it definitely makes sense if for those who if I don't know if we said the exact dates of the survey, but we we did launch right after the US presidential elections on November 7th and you know, had it open for the month of November. So David is correct that these things do. I mean, you know, it's, it's in the back of everyone's mind, right? Or then, you know, it comes to the forefront when you're when you're actually taking a survey about what do you expect in 2025. But thank you. OK, So do you like you tell me like you like if you want to look at the next slide, I would love to be able to go forward so you I'm. Having trouble with the moving. Oh yeah, sure. Of course I'll take care of it. Thanks. So you know, since we talked about the high impact events, this is the global global response survey. So again, it's the societal issue part of the of the risk portfolio that we were looking at and asking at for about high impact and it is really about AI, AI technology and the demographics. So again, as I said, AI really kind of peeps into everything from the supply chain to HR and that is seen as one of the big impact issues for 2025. I don't think that's a surprise either. So next, so this is just kind of a breakdown of on a regional basis. So you say USCEOS again, you know, AI technology top of top of mind, but what really makes this a little interesting in it. And to David's point for the USC, US political polarization and the election implications are second and third on their on their list and that is not to be found anywhere else globally. There's also a concern about declining trust in news and information, something that again is very unique to the US, US notion here. And you know, it's to be expected that Europe is a demographic issues and again, AI technology, there's not a region that really is not concerned about it. So we'll go to the next and you know, this is a Japan. I think Japan also has a kind of a unique set of, of issues and, and priorities. So they are certainly about demographic change in the aging, the aging workforce there, and it's about labor shortages too. But also they're also concerned about the advancement of AI technology and shifting consumer behaviors. A lot of that, if you know, when we talk to our partners at the Japan Productivity Center, they, they, they talk about that shifting computer consumer behavior as, as really an aging factor. So the older people, the older the population gets, the different, different consumer choices, different products and service choices they make. So that's, that's it. And then the rest of Asia, you know, they're looking at consumer behaviors, demographic changes and AI technology as well. So, you know, again, that's theme, it's AI technology across the world. So I'd like to be able to turn on to the turn over turn to, excuse me, to an internal focus. So I think the question that we had was like was what companies, what are companies focusing on for internal priorities in 2025? Yeah, again, we bring, you know, we broke it down into 33 kind of major areas, the finance, risk and and governance, innovation, business models and the human capital side. And you know, CEOs definitely are are looking at resilience. Again, this is kind of the defensive notion. Rising costs is going to be a focus for global CE OS as well. And you know as well as you know, interesting is that defensive strategy with rising costs. There's also, there's also heading for an attachment to a merger and acquisition as a kind of growth to counter that that negative. So there's a little bit of mixed signals there, I think. And you know, for innovation, it's digital transformation and again, it's AI, right? And that's going to help them with those other internal focuses like product and service could improve customer experience. And you know, on the human capital side, that's the Evergreen attracting and retaining talent, but it it's also enhancing productivity. There's another point where AI would come into and they CEOC that to that that that upscale or more productivity. They're going to need to upscale their workforces so they have their kind of alignment on their internal priorities. Makes a lot of sense. Got it. Actually with that said, I think I want to turn into more on the on well, not with that said, let me just take that back. So actually I would like to actually turn this conversation to something else altogether, which is the geopolitical focus, right. So this is, this was something that's been is, is being touched on greatly throughout the not just throughout the answers that we saw. So I did want to take some take some time for you to be able to review and talk to us about the different types of the geopolitical risk that we were seeing at this time. So, so First off, the question was that we had was on conflict related. Geopolitical risk. Right. And so, and that indeed is is concern, overwhelming concern across the globe about global trade wars, you know, big concern. And that can kind of tie back to that issue with the EUUS China relationships. I think, you know, that is kind of the, the, the, the heart of a lot of the issues that come up on the economic side and business environment side. So you know, we have foreign cyber attacks, right? That's a little different than than in the past because this is state, state players, not criminal type. So bigger concern for the far foreign attacks and then you see the conflicts, you know, certainly conflict in Asia Pacific again, you know related to that China relationship with the West. And there's a concern about an expansion of the war in the Middle East, even though we do have a peace, temporary peace settlement in Gaza. The concern that it expands is really considered a risk for for business environment globally should it expand. Did you see any differences between globe like CEO's on a global level versus the US? No, I think it was very, you know, they're very much coalesced around around this, around the same issues. You know, it's cyber attack is important 1st for the US and you know, a lot of hope high profile cases recently, but then the trade wars are are featuring featuring right there. So you know that that is kind of tracking with what global CEOs are so are saying. So you know, there's concern, more concern in the US about expansion of that war in the Middle East. And if you look at Europe, they have their own concern about the the war in Ukraine expanding. So they're all seen as risks, maybe not high impact right at this moment, but future just a little bit down the road there are the risks that that the to have jitters about got. It no, it makes sense if there was any. Was there anything else that we saw in with with the CEOs in Japan or with Asia that of of note? Oh, Japan, I mean, you know, very, very concerned about all, all the political, geopolitical tension in their own backyard from the Taiwan Strait to, you know, general potential conflict with China throughout the throughout Southeast Asia and throughout, throughout that that region. So, yeah, they're very much focused on a very large concern about the nation around China, China being an issue. And you know, when we looked at the other parts of Asia, you know, again, it's global trade wars and they're they are one that's one region that that may actually benefit some if the if the tariffs on China come in. And you know, we've seen a lot of manufacturing, low level manufacturing already shift to Southeast Asia. We don't know how they're going to be affected by tariffs, but you know, they actually may, may be the ones that benefit. OK, so let me Speaking of tariffs of our one of our favorite topics at TCV. So actually I wanted to so we were right now we were talking about conflict related geopolitical risk, but then there's the other part of geopolitical which is like economic related, right, the economy related risk. And I wanted to you to be able to talk to us a little bit more. What what are the risks that are that are coming into top of mind for to our CEO's? Yeah, it's certainly, it's certainly higher energy risks, higher cost of of energy. And also there's some concern in in Europe definitely about the energy supply, which makes sense, especially with the the gas pipeline recently being closed through Ukraine. So you know that that's their concern is that energy. But what is interesting is that decoupling and de risking from China trying to decrease exposure to China. And you know, our China center has done a lot of work looking, looking at that notion. And as good as that sounds, it's not easy to do no matter you may leave physically, but somewhere along your supply chain, you're going to be exposed to China in the second or third tier. And plus setting up alternatives takes time, takes money. So, you know, they see that as a risk staying, staying aligned or, or with China. They would like to decouple what I we see later too, that it's not part of their supply chain adjustment strategies. It's very low. In fact, exit from China is very low on that, yes. And I do need to move a little bit faster, but I did wanted you to just take a quick look for us on you mentioned this earlier about US CE OS about what about what they are seeing on top of economy related geopolitical risk. If you can just tell us a little bit more how that differs from others. Yeah. Again, it's, it's really focused on the US national debt and again, something we hadn't seen until last year come up the survey ranks and, and it's a big issue. Also, again, you know, this notion with China, it just kind of dominates a lot of the answers here. So you know, that is that is definitely a concern. And and we see in Europe too that you know, that higher energy prices and energy supply are big, are big issues. So maybe we could go if we're running short on time and we can go to the AI and the operation side. Yeah, sure I can. Just what happens if I do this? OK, I did it. I'm sorry. Sometimes, like if I'm skipping slides, I, you know, just want to make sure I got that right. That's all. So like, can we just jump right in? Let's talk about supply chain. We were. Talking about supply chain, so again, you know, political instability, concern about the, the US China relationship. So an overwhelming majority of CE OS globally and in pretty much every, every section of the, of the world that we surveyed are making adjustments to their supply chain either now in the process now or in the next three to five years. Got it. So, you know, the question is, what are they doing, you know, to, to make these adjustments and #1 is really the digital technology, AI to improve their performance and vendor diversification to very common supply chain strategies to, to mitigate risk. Interesting. They're focused on environmental and social responsibilities, which also is something that we're seeing a lot more pressure from investors and consumers and, and mandates, especially, especially in the EU. And you know, it was interesting, there was a lot of concern about global trade wars and we asked about, well, you're going to carry more inventory, perhaps front load. And that did not really feature as a, as a, as a strategy at the moment. OK, so and let me just jump right over to the next one. But so. But the question is why? Right, exactly. And it really is, I mean, it's simply about lower, lowering costs and, and lowering risk, right? And getting the closer proximity to customers. And that has to do with notions around onshoring, French shoring. It's, it's more popular, it's certainly, but within the US than it is in Europe or, or even Japan. But you know that that proximity to customers is actually pretty, you know, pretty important issue. You know that that that lower the lower risk of supply chain disruptions and lower costs are really the primary drivers. Yeah. So, so I guess so for those who are based in the US, they're actually wondering. So does that mean that there's a stronger interest in bringing supply chain back into the US or? Yeah, there there is. And we've seen that in our other research that that there's there is more a movement to near shore, front shore, back on shore. You know, and, and, and I think there's a sense of urgency that's being developed in this because of the concern about the global trade wars, tariffs. And, you know, that's, that's just kind of create just forcing people to move a little more faster than that they might have and wanted to do in the past. Thank you. So if we have a little like one more, 2 more minutes on this, I'd like to actually talk about a little about AI because it's so top of mind and it's actually something I'm going to talk to David about too, about AI. So we our question that we had posted out there was as a in which areas of your business do you see the biggest improvements as a result of the application of AI? Tell us more about what you what the CEO saw. Yeah. I mean you know across the board, every geography, every industry, even every revenue size was the product of productivity of the workforce has certainly improved. And in our survey last year, we asked what their expectations were for AI once deployed and and that was indeed their biggest expectation, about 90% expected increased productivity within their firm. And and so to some extent that which is is coming true for some CE OS, it's also helped certainly with the customer, customer satisfaction, customer experience. We know from, again, from our research that that is an area that AI is really taking a hold. It's really already having an impact on the marketing and communications side. And you know, that notion around innovation is certainly helps innovation. And I think the big take away from this is that, you know, at this point in time and AI is not replacing workers, but it's actually supporting them. So, at least for now. And their biggest concerns? Well, you know, lack of expertise, they can't integrate with existing systems and there's a little bit of hallucination in the quality of the output of AI, right. So those are, those are the, the, the biggest issues. And it's kind of like CE OS are saying, well, we have this point and we now have AI, but we just don't know what to do with it. And that lack of expertise is is the is the main crippler for for most, most organizations, they can't maximize the benefits because they're still in the learning phase got. It so. Chuck is that, is that a lack of expertise throughout the entire organization or at the the top end by decision makers? No, I think it's throughout the organization making it, making it work. So when we asked, we asked the question about what traits are you looking for in, you know, future leadership, CE OS all looked at soft, soft, soft skills, collaboration, building trust. And all the C-Suite folks were looking at hard knowledge about AI, hard knowledge about data analytics and not, not the softer, softer stuff. So, you know, I, I think down there, there's very few people within organizations that feel they can master not only in their own function, but across the enterprise. That's where the the real issue would be. That was the perfect segue to that slide, David. I have to control my best, but so thank you for that as well. So, OK, so actually thank you again. So those of you who I just wanted to make sure I received a question in the in the Q&A, if they can get they have a we can give a copies of the C-Suite outlook that is available. There is a slide at the very end of today's deck that you know that has that QR code that you can go and and download that the C-Suite outlook. So, but so now I'm actually going to turn this conversation to to David and we're going to. But before that, I want, I really want to ask this question. OK, So I, you know, want to hear from you again. So what are the most pressing issues facing the new administration? So is it international trade, taxes, inflation, debt ceiling, immigration, hot and cold wars or other? So the poll is now live. So if you guys can let us know what your, your thoughts are, you know, I guess like honestly, I part of me wants to also say like, is it all of it? I mean, but something has to be off top of mind for all of you, right? And not just one or two, but you know, or if you know, if you do have any additional thoughts, you can just type that in the chat box as well and we'll take a look at that. Again, the question is, what are the most pressing issues facing the new administration? That's the new US administration. So that's international trade, taxes, inflation, debt ceiling, immigration, hot and cold wars or other. So I would really love to be able to see your thoughts and get this up to 50% of all of you to, you know, to answer in a poll today. You know, it's, and again, like I said, I'm guessing some of you are may they may struggle with which one of these are exactly are the is is their favorite response. And it's true. You know what part of me also wants to say it's all of it, David, But you know, but I guess, but I'm guessing some of you have a favorite more than the other. So I'm going to close this poll in about 10 more seconds. That's 1098765432 one all right, poll is closed. I did get a a couple of people who told me all, which I actually am not surprised at either. So let me just go through the results quickly for you so that we can all see it. So that first one is international trade is at 22% that leads the way. Inflation comes in at 19.7, debt ceiling and hot and cold wars are both tied at 16.9 so it's pretty relatively close. Immigrations at 14 and taxes comes in at the end at 4.2. David, thoughts? I'm surprised by the 4.2. I am too, actually I wasn't sure but. Yeah. Just just a couple of comments and I'm going to try and blend both of these these Poles together. But I just think international trade obviously top of mind, which isn't, isn't too surprising given the level of conversation, especially from from Trump around trade and tariffs. I think it's important for the audience to to be aware that there is an indirect repercussion and and set of ramifications on consumers, especially as you look at tariffs, because often that additional price is passed along to the consumer. It doesn't seem to be too much of a surprise because I think before Trump took office, there was clear communication around what he was intending to do with regards to trade with regards to tariffs. And this this slow decoupling from the US to China had already been taking place. So, so not too much of a surprise. Going back to the going back to the first poll, just a couple of comments on a couple of these other areas, not surprising around your comments, check on artificial intelligence. I think it's clear that it's revolutionizing how organizations work at the top level all the way down to actually kind of the workforce ramifications with regards to fiscal health, especially in the USA. Little bit surprising because it seems to be further out down the runway of the minds of consumers and the general public. It also was a topic that did not come up on the campaign trail last year pretty much at all. But it is one of the biggest issues that the US face at the moment. You know, and we can get into this in questions down the road, but we spend more on servicing the US debt than we do on the defense budget, which is just if, if the track record continues, it is unsustainable with regards to to taxes. And This is why the, the the 4.2 is a little bit surprising because it's been known now for five years that the the Tax Cuts and JOBS Act of 2017 would be expiring this year. And whether it was Kamala Harris or Trump taking office, that would be one of the big debates and conversations taking place not just within the administration, but within the new Congress. Another point that came up, Chuck, that you mentioned around energy. And I think this is also pretty interesting given the difference in opinions between USCEOS and global CE OS. But energy cuts across everything, especially when you start talking about artificial intelligence. Everyone's like, Oh my goodness, we've got this magic now. It can do, it can do everything and it's going to transform everything. But AI and energy are directly connected, which is and so a lot of these factors it's hard to isolate. There is this interconnectedness between all the factors. So if you don't mind, since you mentioned AII thought I would bring this up too, right. It's it's one of the things I would like to talk to you about today. Is, is where, sorry, we know that and you mentioned this too, that one of the top ways CE OS are planning to alter supply chains was using AI, right. And then but also given the new administration's focus on technology and the initiatives that were mentioned yesterday, do you think that they're going to be action to support the tech sector including and like advanced crypto and chip making and AI like we're? So what happens next? Yeah. So let's let's look at all the things in that station. So we've got artificial intelligence, crypto and chip manufacturing because it's we can't have the first, the first two conversations without looking at manufacturing of chips. So Trump administration appears interested in promoting and partnering with the tech centre tech set sector, including firms involved with crypto, AI and and chip making. Just overnight many people will have seen this on on the news, but there is a now partnership with Open AI, SoftBank and Oracle to invest up to $500 billion over the next four years investing in the infrastructure to power artificial intelligence. The administration is also looking to repeal a Biden executive order on AI risks, which the Republican Party platform argued and continues to argue is stifling innovation with regards to crypto. Trump has also expressed strong support for cryptocurrency, including backing a lighter regulatory approach. Indications are that crypto firms should expect fewer enforcement actions under this new administration moving forward. Chip manufacturing is pretty interesting. It it is unclear what the path ahead will look like under under Trump because there has been a little bit of a change of of conversation from him. He was previously criticizing the CHIPS Act, which had directed billions in federal support for manufacturers and expressed interest in repealing it. However, Republican lawmakers and incoming administration officials have since backed off of that promise in response to opposition from chip manufacturers and lawmakers in districts where the funding is building new facilities and supporting jobs. It's it's also, if you wrap all these three together, AI, crypto, chip, manufacturing and tech. It was pretty interesting to see who was at the inauguration standing behind, standing behind Trump. So it is it's hard to see there not being more partnership, especially in this public private arena, especially as you look to move the US forward and being a little bit stronger with regards to development and around tech and and slowly removing that reliance on on Taiwan from from the chip manufacturing perspective. Can I about AI? One thing, and certainly in this poll, we've seen in in previous polls that when it comes to an impediment or concern, risk is way at the bottom of the list. To me, that kind of raises a Ridge. With regards to AI. Yes, regards to AI, they're kind of people that are just kind of saying, well, you know, let's just get it on with it and worry about the the risk side and I'm sure it's keeping some chief legal officers up at night. Yeah, it's somewhat like the the Wild West in terms of the industry is moving so quickly. I think there is and part of that is also I think there's a strong first mover advantage in the private sector who can embrace and learn the most with regards to AI. And as you, as you start deploying AI within your organizations, how can you make operational adjustments that benefit the organization, that benefit the bottom line that then you know, benefit shareholders. But it goes back to your point as well that you made earlier around knowledge. I think you know, when we look at AI, if you go back, you know, a few years, this was not a topic dominating the conversations in the public arena. And now and now it certainly is. But there is it's moving so quickly. You know, the level of knowledge is, is is lacking the the extent of guard rails to and not necessarily limit but guide the advancements that is not, is not happening. And then I mean, one of the interesting areas when you look at conflicts around the world and how AI is being deployed, you're seeing more public private partnerships, especially when you look at what's happening between Ukraine and Russia and how actually in, in military conflict zones, they're embracing and deploying different types of artificial intelligence to elevate their, their conflict tactics. So. I will take onus on this. This is my fault 'cause I jumped, I just jumped right into. AI. So, yeah, so, but I do want to just start. Let me just go back up. So we should start from the very beginning. And one of the things that we should, we should definitely. Take day two of the administration. Yeah, let me let me back up here just because day one, there were so many things happening that I was like, oh, he talked about AII can talk about AI. But OK, let's just back up then. David, can you please talk to us a little bit more about what you saw in day one, Day 2 and yeah. So I think I think we have approached and just look here at the clock, we're one hour and 42 minutes into day three given that he took office, no. So it's a couple, couple interesting things and I think it's important to clarify certain things here. So and this number is changing. So nobody, nobody put me on it. But 26 executive orders. He has withdrawn from 78 of, of Biden's initiatives. They've passed through 12 memos and four proclamations. To put this in context, when you look at Biden and Obama across 100 days and remember we're just into day three now, Biden had 40 executive orders. When you look out 100 days, Obama was just shy of of 20. So the the rate by which Trump has hit the ground, if you look back over the last decade is is unprecedented. I think it's also important here, there's a surprising number of new sources that misstate the legal basis here. There are not over 200 executive orders. I just think it's important for the audience to clarify this. So there have been a series of executive orders, but there's also been a large number of presidential memoranda. And these are fundamentally different things, So I did. Not realize. That, yeah. So the differences are pretty significant. So executive orders have the force of law I'm quoting here until repealed by subsequent statutes or executive orders or overturned by a court presidential memoranda do not have the force of law and are generally not subject to judicial review barring a subsequent agency action on which suit can be brought. So fundamentally different things. So when we hear out there 200 executive orders, it's not actually 200. There's, there's a whole bunch of, of different ways that Trump is passing things through, but where are we seeing this fiscal health trade, especially around the growing US, EU, China relationship, immigration has taken kind of front of stage and, and energy, they're all substantial areas, primarily because they fundamentally change investments, policies, operations and and strategies of, of private enterprise. So do or is there anything that's most significant that you or are they all or? They're, I mean, I mean there are a few to trade. There was massive conversations and chat around trade, 25% on Mexico, 25% on Canada, 60% on China. We don't like the, you know, the EU surplus in the last 2 1/2 days, nothing has actually taken place and been enforced specifically with regards to tariffs. So maybe it's more of a negotiating tactic at the moment. What has taken place though is immigration. So a couple of things here. Just the president declared a national emergency at the southern border, which will permit the deployment of troops to the border and resume construction of the border wall. There's an executive order around ending the birthright of citizens of children of illegal migrants in the US that's going to have strong push back. The remaining Mexico policy of the first administration has been revived. With regards to energy, this is also pretty interesting. There's a lot of conversation last 2 1/2 days around energy and the environment. Trump has promised to overturn Biden's Green New Deal and expand the exploitation, exploration of of oil and gas resources, withdrawal of the Paris agreements on the health side, withdrawal from the WHOI think an interesting part here is with that with the US now leaving that what is the role of other countries to step up and take a more prominent role, notably China? Mark Rubio, first member of Trump's cabinet to be appointed as Secretary of State. I think this final part is really interesting. The speed of decision making and appointments is unprecedented. I think when you look at kind of Trump 1.0 unfamiliar with the White House, unfamiliar with the processes about how to actually get things done, He's learned a significant lesson from that. Before he sat down for lunch on his day of inauguration. I found this fascinating. He had He passed an order filling more than 30 acting positions in the federal government. Really. So there is this idea of of Trump realizing, hey, I want to hit the ground running. My, my first 100 days is critically important. But I'll tell you what, my first 24 hours is even more important. And it's going to set a precedence as to how I intend to to move forward. So decisions across the board, some are a little bit easier to understand like the immigration, the border I think is a is a little bit easier to pass and to move forward than tariffs and and some of these other things so. Speaking of tariffs, I mean, OK, this is a little bit of a connection folks. You doesn't have to like deal with my how my brain thinks. So I wanted to talk to you a little bit about supply chains. OK, so then in our, in the C-Suite outlook, we talked about how 78% of CE OS globally and then also 71% of USCEOS plan to alter their supply chains. However, if you are focused on frenchuring, reassuring or or exiting from China, what do you think of this? And I also want to tie in a little bit of some of another thing that someone said in the chat box, which is how does this like do we, is there like how did are there plans or thoughts about bringing how to bring that back into the US? Or like, is that part of, I mean, if you, if you can like just like how that if there if, if President Trump has ideas on how that's all going to come back to the US. Yeah. So I think one thing also set the scene as well as this is on the back of COVID, which I think taught organizations the importance of supply chains, but specifically the importance of supply chains to be resilient and the ability for organizations to have to be able to flex and be agile to adjust supply chain. So Chuck, you kind of alluded to this as saying, hey, we're not going to have one rigid supply chain globally from, you know, notably from China to US. We need a variety of options. We need an ability to adjust dependent on what's around the corner, what's around the corner. Somewhat unknown at the moment, given what Trump has kind of said, you know, whether it's terrorists, whether it's subsidies, etcetera. So I think organizations and I saw something this morning from the CEO of three M just emphasizing this point of saying, hey, we've got a diverse supply chain. Depending on what happens, we can adjust and flex and be agile to mitigate risks and to take advantage of of new routes. I think I, I think a large component here will be what happens with regards to tariffs. How does that impact the impact? These connect the economies so that the two notable ones for the US and Mexico and China with Mexico and Canada which are the number one and #2 trading partners, China is third. So it will be a matter of what happens with regards to Trump policies and how that impacts these these organisations. I think it there is a likelihood as well that tariffs could not be blanket. They could be by sector, they could be by product. So I think it also matters depending on the type of company, who their customers are and what they are actually making and who they are serving could fundamentally determine the impact kind of that that is made upon each company. So there, there is a significant possibility that it's either company by company, product by product versus sweeping, sweeping tariffs. And at this point, we're not quite sure. I mean, well, we'll, it's only day three. So, so we'll, we'll see. We'll see sooner than later, I guess. It's but yeah, I think, you know, I think every one of these CEOs is, is having, you know, meetings with their executive teams going, OK, look, something's coming down the road. We need to be proactive. We need to be prepared, even if it if it doesn't happen, great. But we need to be prepared to mitigate the risk. And this goes to a point around mitigating risks and building resilience into that operational supply chain structure. So Speaking of different industries and different companies, so there were industrial policies that were put in place, OK. And from the previous administration, do you think that all of these policies or will stay in place or has there has repeals have already begun or are they being altered or is it just or is it too early to tell? So a couple, a couple comments on this. I think this is a great question actually for the new Congress, in addition to to what the president ends up doing, there are clearly pressures. We talked about, you know, the US debt levels and the ongoing deficit. So there's obviously clear pressures on spending reductions. But on the other side of this, there's there's a strong appetite for spending on, on infrastructure. Infrastructure spending is is very, very popular. Congress will most likely try to cut some of the green features of the multi year infrastructure program and repeal some of the clean energy tax incentives in the Inflation Reduction Act. I think what's also interesting here is you can this is a curveball added in here, but up to 70% of the tax credits thus far have been taken by companies in Republican districts. So when you start to look at what exactly is going to happen, you've got a Republican president, you know, you've got this, you know, in the White House, you've got this trifecta, but actually who's benefiting from from some of these spendings? 70 plus percent is in Republican district. So that is going to create an interesting dialogue and debate on the Hill as to, hey, do I want to benefit from infrastructure spending or do we actually need to be, you know, more fiscally responsible and cut back spending. So there will be this tip for TAP moving forward is as to how things evolve over time. Wow. So, so I guess like like David mentioned earlier, I guess all the strategy officers and all these companies are working overtime these days. Yeah, I think you're just, you know, just to the nature of how Trump makes decisions and the speed to which he's already doing that there's going to be a knock on effect to the private sector. They're going to have to #1 have a have their finger on the pulse of what Trump is, is thinking, the policies that are coming down the road. And how do you adjust both? How do you just adjust your business from a strategic level, but more importantly from an operational level? Speaking of which, for companies for, and I mean in general, of course, but I wanted to actually touch a little bit about immigration policy. And I mean, there have been some noticeable notable actions, but I wanted to dive in a little bit more on your thoughts on this. Yeah, so fascinating topic. The new administration. I think, you know, we've mentioned that executive orders already. He passed more than a dozen executive orders related to immigration from the first day alone. Many restored the policies from Trump's first term or rescinded some policies from the Biden administration. They're primarily, these orders are primarily targeted at securing the border with Mexico and removing individuals already in the country illegally. I think it's important to note that, you know, if, if the number of illegal immigrants in the in the US exceeds 10 million, that is a lot of people to deport. You're correct. So when you get into kind of dotting the IS and crossing the T's, it becomes a very, very complicated endeavour to move forward. Yeah, those, those would just be a couple of the the things off the top of my head when it gets to immigration. Got it. So at this point, I actually wanted to turn the question to on something different altogether. We haven't talked about, but we did talk about a little bit earlier in Chuck's presentation, which is the US national debt. OK, sorry, I don't mean to laugh, but I mean it's just it's one of those things that I mean, it is a huge concern for our CEO, especially in the US as we saw. And we would like to hear more of your thoughts on like what you think what the next this new administration is going to how will they tackle this? Yeah, what? Are they thinking so? So a couple of things. And just to reiterate, it's fascinating that it's top of mind for CEOs but didn't play any role in the campaign trail by either candidates, despite the significance and severity that that we see in terms of US fiscal health, you know, exceeds $36 trillion. We spend more on servicing the debt than we do on the defence budget. The debt to GDP level is 100% and only set to grow between now and 2035. I think it's, you know, the Congressional Budget Office, the CBO anticipates it reaching 118% by 2035. So it's, it's under, it's unsustainable where we currently are. Trump's initiative around the Department of Government efficiencies is interesting. This $2 trillion target is pretty ambitious. And this is also something that cannot be solved in 18 months. This is a multi year of multi administration endeavour to to to solve the issue. From the Committee for Economic Development perspective, we need to really start lower, you know, have a have a target of reducing it from this 100% level down to to lower than 70. But a just so you understand, I mean, 118% is the highest in history. If that is reached by 2035. And it's just it's unsustainable. It has knock on effects to tax policy, debt levels, the debt ceiling that we have in the US, which will be another massive issue that comes up in this year. The problem is though, you know, you want to curb spending, but then you've got elected officials that kind of hey, I recognize the the severity of the fiscal health in the US, but hold on, I want this in my district or in my region. Can you can you cut it over there in your region, which is obviously not going to happen. So a a very significant topic that is going to require Congress and the administration coming together and being on the same page as to how they start solving it. Otherwise you're going to have a massive ramifications that impact Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and impact generations to come. Got. It so this is more of a chipping away kind of approach versus it's. Good. I don't think you will see at that level it's not going to be solved. You know, the first I think has a it's what does it mean? It's meant to be done next year. So I mean, this is it's a start. I mean, whether they can hit a $2 trillion cut is is ambitious. But you know, it's kind of, you know, it's nice to have some ambitious targets out targets out there. It's just a matter of getting everyone on the same page, saying, hey, whether you're a Republican or Democrat, we've got to solve this problem together because it impacts the health of this nation. Exactly yes, that's what I so OK, well, actually, Oh, Oh dear. I didn't realize the time everyone sorry. We're we're just having a good time over here. So so actually, if I don't, if you don't mind, actually, it's just one more question and it's just more for Chuck. So but so thank you. Where's the one I should say that for always say thank you, folks. OK, so thank you, David. So then Chuck, given all of these concerns, so how do you how are CE OS planning to continue to grow profits? Were there any thoughts on this from? Yeah, certainly, you know, for short term, short term profit, definitely they're looking at innovation, they're looking at new products and services primarily that as opposed to a longer term viewpoint. But yeah, it's really, it's really depending a lot is really depending on the ability of the firm to, to innovate. And it, it really is around a new products and services. And it's interesting that in certain, and I know in Japan, for example, that it's, it's about cutting costs and to, to increase the bottom line. But it, it's not so much in the US or, or in Europe. So it's it's really about getting new stuff on the market. Got it. Thank you. So with that said, I actually think our time is running out. I loved having both of you here today. Thank you both for joining. It's been it's been fun. So it's been fun for here. It's also been fun. I've been working with both of them very closely on the C-Suite outlook. So, so it's just been an amazing ride for the past couple of months. So, so let me just close here. So thank you all for joining. If you guys want like don't forget that you can download the C-Suite Outlook itself. It is available on our site. A couple of things that I did wanted to to mention as well that we have an upcoming meeting of sorts like it's called the 2025 a year in preview. So that's an exclusive gathering of all the CCEOS and C-Suite executives to have a conversation about what they see in the year ahead. So that's coming up. So please, if you're interested, please join us finally. So in case anyone's is interested, February 12th is the next economy watch. So please join us for that and you'll, you'll have, I believe it's Eric Lund who will be running that shows and he'll and he'll go over the state of the economy and probably touch about what happened in the past. Well, I guess that's about 3-4 weeks for of, of, of being in the new administration. So thank you again. Take care, have a good day. _1737608817176