In portfolio solution portfolio recipe webinar for the month of November. This month we have the diversified boutique firm portfolio recipe and I'm Rusty Vanneman, the chief investment strategist and Orion portfolio solutions. So first of all, why diversified boutique firm? Why does that make a good portfolio recipe? Well, I actually wrote down some reasons here. So there's a bunch of them and there's really good reasons. First of all, boutique firms have unique stories. They're also typically privately owned with their founders. So highly actively engaged as today's is a great example. Employee owned firms tend to perform better both in terms of investment performance and business performance. Given that these firms eat their own cooking, these firms have aligned interest with their investors, accessible portfolio managers. We can actually talk to their top executives and investment decision makers again like we are today, highly agile, a client service. Again, these partners will talk to and support our financial advisors. Boutique firms also have higher conviction in their investment philosophy and process. They're not hugging benchmarks. Bottom line, they tend to be better at stronger partners with our financial advisors. In addition. Active management, when active management thrives and I believe we're in that environment where active management will do better, where the average stock is outperforming sort of the top of the market, high conviction managers that eat their own cooking again should perform better. That's how one of the patron Saints of multi asset investing, David Swensen, preferred boutique managers, the prospect of better performance and again better performers or better partners. So before I introduce today's speakers, I do have some housekeeping notes and I have a few here. So first of all again the format for the portfolio recipe. It's already broken into three segments we have each strategist will speak for 20 minutes and then we'll come back for 20 minutes for Q&A. When it comes to Q&A, submit your questions in the the the Q&A box in the lower left. You will see various resources for today's webinar and a few hours after this webinar we will be sending out a deck and also just replay details if you want to check it out. We also have a couple of buttons you'll see on your screen there. So where you can actually click on for our our portfolio recipe for the month of December is actually what was our most popular recipe for the year excluding. Today is of course we also have other call to actions including our podcast where both of these individuals have been on the podcast and also other webinars we are doing soon. So As for our today's speakers we have two great speakers to multi decade decade veterans for. So we have Bob Baker from AMA from was started in 1998 based out of Dublin. OH and Bob is the president of AMA and we also have Kim Arthur founding partner President, CEO, portfolio manager for Maine. Management started in 2002 out of San Francisco, and with that I think I already said my new record for opening comments. I need to hand it off to the stars of today and Bob Baker. Very good. Thank you, Justin. Thanks, rusty. And as always Kim, it's a pleasure to to work with you on a couple projects and we're obviously happy to be on the Orion platform. So we'll go through a few slides here and hopefully shed some light on a little bit about AMA. AMA is an independent and fundamentally rooted investment strategist. We've all been on the platform since 2003. We managed a little bit less than a billion dollars in AUM and AUA depends on what day of the market we look at that number, but. We are located in Dublin, OH and we we seek to add value by tilting portfolios toward attractive segments of the market through active market pricing and sector valuation process. We call this process technical or technical beta. And we do it through. A highly experienced investment team and we've got about 30 plus years of average investment experience between us. And. We have taken a lot of time and effort to make ourselves accessible and we encourage collaboration with the advisors. And hopefully we've made our investment process fairly easy to understand, track and discuss and we think that's that that really is important. So when an advisor is interfacing with with the client. You can explain fairly easily over performance, under performance or performance that's in line and through a number of our, our, our pieces that we write and generate, we try to make that an easy format for everyone to follow. But we call our process tactical or beta. But before we talk about that, let's talk about passive beta. And you know passive beta exposes clients to bumps and potholes and unexpected corners of the market. And as investment professionals with a lot of experience, the the three of us have seen this over the years. You know, clients go through the up cycle excitements, the UP cycle relief from a recovery, panic decline. Then they become optimistic after they've had to doubt that the. After the panic decline, was that really gonna recover? They go to a new all time market top and they start to have fear. And our whole tactical, excuse me, beta process. Focuses on the fact that. Many investors just aren't set it and forgetters and a lot of them seek a smoother ride. And it's been my experience over the years when we've worked with clients directly that if I have a client that says oh I don't worry about the the downdrafts. I know the market will come back sooner or later that client probably is going to come back and and one of those downdrafts say are we OK. So we believe our tactical beta process. And add some value. By hopefully smoothing the ride, and we attempt to do that by tilting the portfolio allocations. Toward more attractive segments of the market and we also try to limit the exposure to segments that have elevated risk. And so hopefully over time we can kind of smooth out this line, so clients have a lot less of the panic and the fear and that the emotions that come into play. Place in a downdraft. And. As part of our tactical beta management, we look at a lot of factors, but we really are a fundamental market evaluator and we look at pricing less of the market. Sector valuation and the whole process is designed to hopefully provide a very consistent and reliable. Tactical beta experience, some of the things we look at, we look at relative historical PE ratios, historical earnings volatility, historical price volatility. And at the same time, we focus on earnings momentum. Relative price strength. And then depending upon the market cycle, we'll blend in some contemporary factors to try to fine tune some of our allocations within the sectors of the market. But if we take a little broader look at the strategy every portfolio we build. For Orion is designed and adjusted around a well defined risk score and that provides an excellent backdrop for a clear and consistent portfolio and experience for the client. We seek to identify undervalued areas of the market which hopefully are positioned for growth. And we pursue high quality investments within those market segments. In some of the contemporary factors we evaluate, you know, in these many market cycles. But you know, we we diligently monitor and account for major market economic and political events that may impact portfolios. You know, there's a lot of things that happen regulatory wise for certain sectors at times that. Really is froze on another whole host of. Parameters that we kind of have to worry about when we look at some of those sectors. But on the Orion portfolio? Platform, we have a number of domestic risk adjusted mutual fund and ETF portfolios. We have some more aggressive portfolios, the aggressive growth and the growth which primarily are invested in. 98% domestic equities. Then we also have some of the balance portfolios that start to blend in some of the fixed income. Sleeves within the portfolios and then of course we have 100% fixed income portfolio. Also most of our portfolios are in the active. Mandate we do have our fixed income portfolio is part of the DIVERSIFIER platform. We also have a series of. Global Mutual Fund and ETF portfolios and they're very similar to the domestics with the exception that they start to blend in a definitive extra allocation to international equities. And at the lower risk model portfolio scores, they start to blend in at 4% and then they end up at an extra 15% within the aggressive growth and the growth portfolios. And again, these are listed in the active mandate. Ohh, on the platform we also have some specialty portfolios are multi alternative strategy. It's kind of a a good winning place anywhere strategy. It's in the Diversifier mandate. We've teamed up with Ocean Park and we have a tactical allocation portfolio that is a part of our aggressive growth and part of ocean parks. High yield bond discipline. We also have our high dividend growth ETF portfolio, which is basically a combination of ETF's that are provided to. Or allocated so that we have a halfway decent dividend yield. It's not a crazy 8% yield, but normally it's. It's an excess of the S&P 500. So it's kind of like a portfolio that's that that's high dividend growth. But you know, we're not going to get out of control focusing on the yield because when you do that sometimes you can expose yourself to a lot of market volatility. We also have the 712 balanced portfolio, which is basically A7 primary asset categories and 12 fund to positions. This is more of a static portfolio that we've had on the platform for a number of years. And if we take a look at the sectors, what you're looking at basically is kind of the cornerstone of all of our work. And. Take the example that the S&P 500 as of November the 11th. It's PE ratio was in the 63rd percentile of where it's been historically. It has a forward-looking earnings forecast at 12%. And then we go down and do this for each one of the sectors. And we've highlighted the green sectors that appear to be. It lowered PE valuation levels where they are at actually and then the the orange are a little bit higher and we'll take an example of consumer discretionary that's in the 85th percentile. PE wise of where it's been, it has a forward. Earnings growth forecast at 37%, but then we also start to look at price volatility and you can see the the price volatility on A1 and A5 year basis of this sector is substantially more than the S&P 500 at one. Now the earnings volatility is not much different than the S&P 500. It's a little bit less. But let's take another example. We go down to energy. Today energy is in the 10th percentile. PEY is the where it's been. It's going to negative forward earnings growth rate. These are consensus numbers that we that we use. But the price volatility is 1.7 times on a one and five year basis. In the earnings volatility, this isn't just a huge number, it's 53 times and we've seen this number as high as 200 times a few months back. So our whole goal within our process is basically to attempt to stay overweighted to those sectors that are undervalued and have. Decent forward earnings forecast, but then also we had to take a look at price volatility and earnings volatility. And let's just take an example of our growth portfolio. As of September 30, we were under weighted in financials and we're overweighted in healthcare. Now a little bit under weighted and consumer discretionary. Which has been a good place to be. Energy wise, we're basically a market allocation within that, a little bit underweight in technology. You know, we look at the same data except on our aggressive growth portfolio. Again, we're under weighted and financials and overweighted in healthcare. And the other sectors we have some slight overweights or market weights within. In in this whole process. We do over basically an intermediate market cycle. We're not going to make a reallocation every month. We've averaged about 1 1/2 reallocations per year. And during those reallocations, we tend to blend those with if we want to switch out of fund or an ETF, we do it at the same time. But today we're focused on large cap. We're tilted towards defensive sectors. And we're really focusing on. Areas of the market that can show some earnings and have earnings that are less volatile than the market in general. Fixed income wise we've been fairly conservative for the last three or four years because we felt that the Fed needed to raise rates at some time and take liquidity back out of the market because there's been a huge influx of cash in the market from the Fed buying securities. But there's also been a huge transfer of of cash payments from Washington out to the population and. A combination of those. Two events are causing some pretty dramatic inflation and have caused some pretty dramatic inflation. You couple that with the supply channel problems today and it really hits his compounded a lot of a lot of problems. But the fixed income side is 100% domestic. We're very short and maturity or duration about 2.8 years. And we've been focusing on high quality, basically taking on 0% credit exposure right now. And we we went through and did an analysis of our portfolios. And we did it over 135 and 10 years. And we took our portfolios here listed on the side. And we said how many of those portfolios were in, we're one of the top ten wasn't always the top one that was in the top ten portfolios over those time periods. And you can see when we put the portfolios on, on the on the beta mandate. It's eight to 10/3 of 10/5 of 10. Six is 10 and very similar on the active side. And the reason we show this is that we have a lot of advisors that will use some of our sleeves and portfolios as beta mandates. Because, you know, we're not overly active in reallocations. We will make a reallocation whenever we feel it's justified, but we try to do it. Basically on intermediate market cycle valuation. So I think this the point that it can be taken from this chart is that. We've been very competitive over the years and there's been a high degree of consistency within the portfolios and we've heard that from advisors that say they've used our portfolios a because they can explain them easily to their clients. And and the returns are not necessarily the best, we haven't been the worst, but we've been consistently in be able to generate returns that end up being acceptable to the clients. You know well why. Why do advisors work with AMA and? We've spent some time interviewing and and hearing feedback from advisors, but I think in general we have heard that there's easier client conversations. You know, a fundamentally rooted process is fairly easy to understand, track and explain. Our format, our performance tends to be relatively stable. And the Third Point that we've made over the years since 2003 is that we want to be a partner in the investment process with the advisor and our whole team, myself, our CIO, Phil Volcker. The sales area, the marketing area, we're very happy to work alongside advisers to solve client challenges and find creative solutions or even new business opportunities. So we're here to make life easier. At the bottom of the screen, you'll see a number of pieces that are available both on AMA and main management. But specifically we publish a quarterly market talk commentary and we publish those periodically on nine quarter end cycles too. Whenever we think there's something worthwhile that we have to share that someone might want to read, we also have. Economic dashboard that's available on the economy. And we also publish special market Blogger or or pieces on things coming up and and white papers that are available for advisers to use. And we've done a lot of work with, with Kim and his firm and his associates over the years. And I think, I think we're a good pair. We're a good recipe as we might say. We're both boutique firms and we both probably prioritize accessibility. And we know each other's strategies intimately and both our shops are well equipped to talk through a portfolio blend for both firms. And I think our our portfolios are easy to understand and track. Again, they're both fundamentally rooted. And we have the versatility to sue client needs across your book and complementary disciplines from active and data can be easily blended and managed for a wide range of needs. And this versatility allows you as the advisor to create well balanced building blocks. That can be implemented across your client base. So that's about 20 minutes on AMA and I know we'll have questions coming up later, but I am available later and that is my direct dial phone number. You're welcome to call me anytime I do answer that line. You can also talk with Aaron Plaskow, our national sales manager and that's Aaron's Direct Line also in. We'd be happy to discuss with you. How our portfolios can be effective for your clients and how our portfolios along with main management management portfolios can be effective also. So thank you. Excellent. Thanks, Bob. That was great. And again, we do have Q&A coming up and in about 20 minutes or so if you have questions, it's amendment of lower right hand corner. And now we have Kim Arthur from Maine management. The floor is yours, Kim. Great, Rusty, thank you very much. I want to thank you and the entire OPS platform for the phenomenal partnership that we've had for a number of years and hope to continue to build and grow that into all the advisors that use your platform for being partners with us too. And Bob, thank you, can't say enough good things about Bob and our relationship like Bob mentioned we we've worked in conjunction. For a number of years mixing and creating these recipes for the client solution. So really excited to be on this podcast and and share it with two great people before I get started. I always kind of like I I still this as one of my partners said. There was a guy named Charlie Maxwell who was a big oil analyst back in the 70s and he would start all of his presentations and say OK, now there were no podcasts at that time he'd say take out your paper and pencil. And I'm going to give you 6 quick things for an overview for what main management is, and then I'll go into a little more depth there, but trying to leave some salient points. So just for those of you that don't know who main management is, again, we've been in business for 20 years running all ETF portfolios and we're **** compliant. So we think that that is extremely important to have that have that kind of a portion to it. Second thing, the partners, like Bob mentioned, the partners here at main management, we are invested right alongside the clients. So we've got 15% of our $2.3 billion of AUM AUA that we are invested. So we're eating the same cookie. #3 because we're eating the same cooking and we live out here in the People's Republic of California, we are extremely tax aware, extremely tax aware. That's very important in a year like this where the tape is down and mutual funds like 2008 had a negative return and delivered a capital gains. You will not see that with an ETF strategy. 3rd is that we are a boutique investment manager, but we have an investment, an institutional process that's very, very, very key. And then 5th we have. Our strategies the way and you'll see this here in just a minute here, we're a fundamental investor with a catalyst that with a catalyst is very, very important because there are times that the market can remain irrational longer than we can remain liquid. And the last piece is probably just as it's probably the most important thing, we are a client centric firm and it, it, it, it, it is encapsulated. With the saying that we like to say investors get to keep more of their of their investment returns. So that is our is our stated goal. So those six things are kind of what I'll go through and a little more in depth here, but just kind of setting setting the table for that. Again we are this total return manager again focused on after fees and after tax that conviction I talked about. Again though we are invested right alongside on a risk management. This is very, very key and we've got a couple different tools that we use. One of them that I'll go into a little more later on here, but it's the use of covered call options either specifically as a strategy or opportunistically amongst our flagship active sector rotation. And then the direct access, just like Bob said, that's one of the things that you want to get from a boutique money manager. You want direct access. We like to say, you know, two rings, no waiting, that's not the case usually with a much larger firm because they're not built that way. So those are, those are key, key hallmarks. This is the investment committee. There's four of us. The three founding partners have all been continuously on the IC for the 20 years. So the track record that you look at is what's been generated. Alex Varner, who is our head of the Director of Research, he joined the ICC a little less than two years ago and he's been with our firm for 11 years. So he's very well sky. But these are the four people. These are the ones that. All the decisions are made for the strategies for the different vehicles that you're able to invest through with your clients. And again, you've got Ambassador Frederick's, he's got a very well steep background in research. So that's sort of his, his expertise. Jim Considine, he's been involved doing options since 1975 when the Chicago Board of Exchange started. In fact, we'll be there next week. Ringing the bell for our latest and newest ETF, which is an international ETF. We've been running the strategy since 2007 and then for our buy right strategy that we recently converted from a mutual fund to a ETF for tax reasons amongst others. And then Alex is, like I said, he's been my head of research for a decade, so very proud of the team that we have running the IC. We also meet on a weekly basis. Right now we're going through the deep dive, which is a week long, trying to come up with a game plan for 2023. And again, that is a fluid playbook when you get that, but you get kind of the basis set up for it and then you can use that as a foundation. OK. This is this institutional process with a boutique feel. Again, you've got continuity with the investment committee. You've got focus of a boutique firm. You have that access. I love to say that you, the advisors, you have a seat at the table to our IC process. So you can get as deep as you want to looking at how the sausage is made and then we've got lots of collateral that we'll talk about. Later that kind of augments and supplements what we are doing, but that direct access and that seat at the investment committee table we think are extremely important. And then that insight, again, we think from a boutique standpoint, we all bring a different, everybody on the IC brings kind of a little bit of a different area of expertise. Again, Ambassador Frederick spent most of his time as a financial bank analyst, Jim Considine. Also has expertise as being the CIO of a family office. I've run sales and trading before and obviously been doing this for 20 years and then Alex has been 10 plus years. Just looking at that deep dive into the the spreadsheets that we have, I always like to say that if you want to come out, put on your night vision goggles and sit next to Alex and his seat there, you'll go on an IA on a meta verse that you've never believed. Before so he's well ahead of Facebook on their meta. This is the organizational structure. There's 18 of US, 18, you've got the investment committee across the top that we've talked about. Got my partner Blaine Docker that's in charge of Operations, 2 full-time traders, Joe and Marissa that are out here in the headquarters in San Francisco. We then have a sales team that are three regions of two each. And then it's headed up by Darrell Ryan that I've worked with for you know, started working with him back in in 2000. And then we've got our head of Marketing, Shelby, she is phenomenal, phenomenal with what she brings to the table with making the collateral dance and live in some of the programs that she has. And then we've got Alex and his research analyst James Maxwell and then running up my Chief Compliance Officer is half E he keeps us all. Down the straight and narrow, so that is the direct access that you've got to. Now again, our overall investment philosophy is again as I mentioned, we've been doing ETF portfolios for 20 years. So we were one of the earliest ones to do each portfolios of ETS. And one of the reasons that we chose ETS, we all came out of a single stock background and actually the process that we use is not dissimilar from a single stock money manager. But what we realized early on is the leverage that you get being able to do these baskets in these sectors. And sub Industries allows a lot more scalability. And let me get very specific with that. On the seller buy side, a single analyst has the capacity to maybe cover 15 individual stocks. And of those 15, there's probably three that they really know, three that they know. So if you want to cover a lot of different individual stocks, you need a massive team, a massive team. Whereas if you want to cover the 11 gifts or the 11 sectors of the US market and you want to cover all the sub industries. You can do it in a much more efficient manner. And again, we are active managers of passive indices. That's sort of our our IP or that that that that we kind of strive for and that we've been doing for 20 years. All right. That process. Again is a fundamental with the catalyst. So we have two buckets that we like to look at. We have on the right hand side you've got these qualitative factors where there's 400 plus macro and micro indicators that started out with probably 20 or 30 and has grown to 400 plus and those are kept up. Some of them are are daily, they're they're more higher frequency, some of them are slower on a quarterly basis, but it's a very robust database that we have and what we can use for that that gives us a. Really good flavor of where we are in the economic cycle, what's happened before with previous economic cycles and more importantly to you and your clients, how those qualitative factors, how they correlate with on the left hand side with the fundamental valuation work that we do. That's the key piece is finding the right qualitative ones that can give us an insight into what the price movement is going to be. So on the left hand side, on the quantitative, we do a lot of the stuff that Bob. Also does with price to earnings, price to book, price to sales, we we use these and we'll break them up into deciles into into you've got 10 buckets and what you can do with those 10 buckets is you're able to look and see if something is expensive, it's in the top desk style or something that's very cheap in the bottom decile. And then when you pair that up with the qualitative side with something that that is highly correlated to the movement. And that quantitative side that kind of gets you your shopping list and your ability to then build out your portfolios. One of the things I love to say and it and it, it never can be said too much, price and proof rarely happen at the same time. What do I mean by that on individual securities and analysts may come in, a piece of paper has gone from 10 to 20 at $20. They have all the reasons why it's ready to go to 25, OK, because they feel really comfortable. With that time, that $10, they were like, whoa, whoa, price and proof rarely happens at $10 there. That's when you've got to have these other factors that you're bringing in and try to find out where your downside is and what potentially the catalyst is to move things higher. We spend an inordinate amount of time doing exactly that. Alright. Why invest in a main management active strategy are SAC active sector rotation as our flagship strategy that we have on Orion portfolio. It was the initial strategy that we have. We've got others but this is sort of your core large cap US beta that is again tax aware and is has some some key pieces that all get into about some risk management that we can do. But again it's a 20 year track record that we've been running as a separately. Manage account here at main management, you get it replicated in a model based on Orion's platform. It's tax aware for your taxable money. The trailing three years on that strategy is top decile in Morningstar on an after tax after fee basis. That's extremely important. And then again we are trying to, we love to set expectations and deliver on those expectations. That's very, very key, particularly you. As an advisor I think that that helps you and we've we've got the feedback on this with your clients. You need to have that level of kind of comfort about are you going to deliver on these expectations that you're set. We try to do that on a daily basis and then you get this active risk management that that you, you kind of with ETF's, you get away from single stocks. You also you get rid of your two wings, your left and your right where single stocks can probably. Have higher percentage price increases, but they can also be on the left side tail or they can go to zero. You typically do not have a basket of securities and ETF that will go to 0 because of the diversification. So that's a key key piece. Everything that we put into our strategies, we have price targets upside, downside, no different than a single stock manager. So this is what the pie looks like for this active sector rotation strategy. Again it's a large cap. Think of GARP growth at a reasonable price with a fundamental catalyst and it's typically 80% in large cap US. The other 20% opportunistic. We typically will float into a style value or growth or a size mid small and large right now the bulk of that opportunistic. Pocket is filled with a size factor which is mid and small so that that that kind of gives you the the the top piece there. All right. I want to mention one thing back on here. Let me just go back and and and just cover quickly for just 30 seconds here. We currently the way we are positioned right now the beginning of the year we were barbeled in growth and value. We spent a lot of this year where we would do this opportunistic risk management which is selling covered calls. We've probably brought in over 300 basis points of premium to the strategy from doing those cover calls. Why? Because you've had a very high volatile year here, which is custom made for being able to do that. But that's all part of your alpha generation for you the client or the advisor for your client. So that that has been a big, big part of it. It's also been much more difficult in a year like this to kind of flip between value and growth because it's, it's, it's unless you've been very quick on the trigger, it, it's been very difficult. That's why the call writing has been a good thing we've recently been tilting more towards. Growth as we think the valuation looks better going into the new cycle into 2023. You do has, as Bob pointed out, some of the defensive factors, staples and utilities are extremely expensive. They're in their top decile right now. So they can still be defensive, but it gets much harder to make money. As Warren Buffett has always said, valuation matters, valuation matters and and we believe that wholeheartedly too. You can have something that's a great quality. Company. But if it's mispriced, IE it's expensive, IE that price and proof has already been discovered, then it's not worth there. Your risk reward is not as good. OK. The other thing I wanted to talk a little bit about is this all asset strategy. Again this is a comprehensive solution that is stocks, bonds and alternatives. Again like everything we do we try to be extremely tax aware. We're trying to seek some sort of superior risk adjusted return on this all asset has a 15 plus year Gibbs verified track record and it's got that built in risk management where we can do opportunistically the covered call writing plus. Kind of toggling on a dynamic basis between equities and fixed income and having the alternatives as a buffer, as a buffer inside of that. So if you look at it, the core one is 70 equities, 30 fixed income, but because we can float, we can go as low as 60 equities and as high as 80 equities depending on how our outlook is for risk on and risk off. Currently it is at 70 equities, you've got 20 fixed income and 10 alternatives. So that that gets you to your, to where your, you know, your, your, your, excuse me, your 60. 2010. That, that, that, that's built up out of it. So those are the, you know, the strategy right now, how it's positioned. All right. The other piece that I wanted to cover is this buy right strategy. This is 100% call writing. This is an alternative. This is something that you can you know that that can either be a standalone strategy. I like to say it lives between the wall which is fixed income and the wallpaper, which is equities. So this lives in between those areas, this one over the last 17 years, you've had 15 positive years out of the last 17. And this year it's positive right now. So if you updated that, we're not done with the year here, but if we were done, we got one month to go, you would have 16 positive years out of 1816 out of 18 with that positive for this year. Again, we have changed that wrapper where it is now a ETF and what does that mean? That means that it is very tax aware we are going to start distributing a. The dividend, it historically we've kept that internally, but we've had advisors that have requested they'd like to have that so they can use it and have an easy button to know that they're going to have some stream of dividend yield coming off of it. We're going to target between 4 and 6%. Again, that can complement your fixed income, which is lower beta. It can complement that. And the other thing is if we're running this properly with the ETF wrapper that we have, that should be a return. Of capital. So from a tax aware standpoint, it'll be significantly more tax aware than normal fixed income which is ordinary income. That's a key key piece for people to focus in on. So we think that this is a very, we're very excited about having changed that wrapper. The reason why it didn't start out as an ETF is on option call writing it was the ETF wrapper was not kind of built yet for it when we launched this thing back in 2015. As a mutual fund. But that's now. All the kinks have been worked out, so it's more than ready now, and we're there with it. OK. This is just showing you that buy right strategy. Again, like I said, 100% option overlay. You can see the blue line on the outside there. Underneath the cover is a global allocation that we do our same fundamental with the catalyst analysis on it. So you've got 3 streams of potential return, the premium options, you've got the asset allocation and the dividends. Again, we're going to be taking a big chunk of that premium option and we're going to be distributing that out to you. And your clients in that 4 to 6% distribution that we're targeting? And that is all that I have. So I would just say one thing before I flip it back to Rusty again. I want you know as far as the access, we are just a phone call away. We're just a phone call away whether you want to call my cell, if you want to call any of the sales team that we have and we are definitely here to help make your life easier. And with that, Rusty, I'll flip it back to you. To say this was this has been a great presentation because we've got to see some insights on an actively managed philosophy and process. And again in this environment I think active management we could be in the early innings of of active management doing well. I guess the one question for Kim is that I guess your Director of research is only looking at 450 data points. So I guess we'll have a celebration when he finally gets to 500. So, but I do have to say this act amendment by the way and and and Bob touched upon this too. These, there's all these firms have a lot of different strategies and they are performing well. It isn't just a relative basis on Orion portfolio solutions platform. If you take it to a broader universe like look at Morningstar categories, again, this process is bearing fruit in terms of relative performance. To check that out now in terms of potential recipes, my analyst Ben Baskin and I came up with five different recipes for five different objectives. Now the reality is there's a lot of great ingredients from both different firms. So these are just five different suggestions. Of how to balance the strategy as well from main management from AMA. So these are some potential ideas, but there's a lot of different ways to play it. If you have different ways or different questions, obviously you could ask either one of our two speakers or you could also reach out to Ben and I as well for additional ideas. Again question and answers, submit them in the lower hand corner. Otherwise again there's just some quick the resources we provided Orion portfolio solutions. This also includes all of our portfolio recipes going back over the last year. Now for questions. We do have some here. The first question I want to ask is on the whole idea of international investing or global investing. And I would kind of want to get each of your take on both thinking about international from our strategic standpoint. So how much should investor typically have an international and tactically so do you like international more or less kind of relative to those strategic weights? I bring this up because. International I think probably is is the surprise of many people has actually been outperforming pretty strongly over the last month and quarter to date and actually many of the markets now are outperforming even over the year to date one year time frames. I think that's going to be a question that comes up and people look at your own statements that these numbers sort of stick. So international investing, what kind of weights and what should we be thinking about right now from a tactical standpoint, Bob, I'll give it to you first. OK, sure, rusty, well you know within our global portfolios we've had. Between 4:00 and 15%. Actual dedicated to the international markets over the years and you know the international markets, you know 30 years ago everybody wanted to diversify portfolios because supposing the international markets were going to act different than the domestic markets and. The last 10 years we've seen that not be the case. Everything is so intermixed and and and now correlated that. The international markets have underperformed the US for a long, long period of time and but your point is well taken the last month, two months we could be starting a new trend of international adding some incremental value within portfolios. So you know I think investors and advisors have to be careful not getting too much international, but I think in our mind probably that 15% is the Max and if you're a very conservative investor maybe 4%. Because even when you look through our portfolios just from the domestic piece, we probably have two 2 to 3% international exposure from companies that do a ton of business overseas. So that 4% really is 6% and that 15% probably is more like 17. So that's kind of a range that we would suggest. Undertake. So I'm going to start with the US dollar because any, any conversation about the international exposure, it is highly, highly leveraged to what's happening with the dollar. The dollar bottomed in 2011. We've everyone kind of talks about the last year here with the dollar up 20% but off from 2011 to the peak that we've had intra year this year the dollar was up 50%, OK. It's now come off that boil and it's coming down and part of that is as people are starting to think the Fed at least the futures markets are anticipating the end of the Fed rate hikes sometime in the first quarter of of next year. And what's key about that 50%. That's now like 45 is the last big cycle in the dollar that that topped out in. In 0203, it was 45% for the dollar and that period from O3 for five years forward to O seven when the dollar was declining. The international markets outperform the US two to 1/2 to one, OK. So it is, it is very powerful, but you have to have the dollar come down. So we think that you're kind of getting that set up for that to happen. Just like you said the last month, international stocks are up 10, the US is up one. So and nobody owns international right now. When I when I go out on the road and I'm sure it's with Bob too, when you go out on the road, if you start to say the I word, they shut you down. In a heartbeat and a heartbeat. Why? Because it's underperformed for 10 years or 11 years. But I think we're setting up here. We're now in a situation and I'll give you the numbers there quickly. International yields almost two points more than the S&P and its trading at a discount. The last time it was this cheap was 2003 and I just gave you the scenario on what happened. Going forward, you need the dollar though to come down. So in our global asset allocation right now, which is a 7030. We just kind of used that for a benchmark. the US All Country World Index right now is 62% US and 38, that's the benchmark. The benchmark right now is 6238. We've been running in those international strategies. We've probably had about 50 US and 20 international. We are in the process and have been here the last, the last couple weeks of taking that international allocation higher. We're bringing that up by about five points and funding it out of the US market. So that would mean in that one piece there you go, 50 goes to 45 for the US and 20 goes to 25. So it's a little more aggressive than what, than what Bob's talking about. But I think also that typically when international starts to go and the dollar declines, you typically get a 2-3 year really good juicy window where this can happen. And this is one of the reasons why we're taking this separately managed account that we have and we're launching next week an international ETF. That we're very, very excited about and that thing should launch with probably within a month we should have 50 plus $1,000,000 in it. Nice. You know, I think, right nobody's asking about international now but I bet maybe at year end and in January people will start asking that question again particularly some of these numbers hold that that we've been seeing of late. Here's a fun question. So and this would be a really good question because if you have your decades of experience and and living through a lot of different bear markets. But as active managers what does this year's broad decline taught you about managing money and what kind of unique challenges that this market produce and how have you tackled them this year? Might be good at first again, alright, sure. Well, you know, we'd all like to think the market goes through cycles and those cycles have some commonality with them and they do. But you know, nothing's ever the same. And when we've had a massive Fed experience experiment going on and the expansion of the balance sheet, injecting cash in the system. And then we've had Washington, you know, send their astronomical transfer payments out, sent more cash into the system. I think what what I've learned over the years is, you know, nothing's the same and and we you just have to be nimble and ready to react. And that's why we like having a core position of each of the portfolios in the AMA equity fund and the AMA Income Fund. So we can do adjustments within the funds and not have to disrupt all the positions within the various model portfolios. And you know that's going to be challenging. This is not going to be an easy workout out of the system because we've got to deal with inflation, we've got to deal with. The Fed working out of this balance sheet and basically selling securities to somebody out there and you know, we hope there's going to be people that want to buy those securities. Kim. Yeah, so I think I I would echo what Bob said about, you know, it's never easy. There's you know history definitely doesn't repeat but it definitely rhymes. One thing that you definitely saw for this year, if you look at the multiple contraction that happened from O to the bottom and O2 in in October of O2, that was like a two year process to go from 25 * 15 times that happened here in 10 months. So the rapidity of things that happen now is amazing. the Fed rate hike cycle. One thing they do tell you that is true don't fight the Fed you know again that's that's that's been a truism for sure. But look at it the rap that the rapidity that that the Fed has taken rates by the end of this year we're going to be knocking at at at at 5% will be at 4 1/2 that's a night that's in nine months in nine months that they do that. Typically a Fed rate hike cycle takes two years. This one will be under a year most likely. So what we've learned from that is that we have a process that's in place. We've got to breathe through some of these things. We clearly, you know we thought the markets might be down 1213%, they were down over 2X that. So we were dead wrong. We were dead wrong. But what you can't do when that happens is you can't panic, you've got to stick to your process and that's why I was going back again. We like having some of these risk mitigating tools like selling covered call options. In that, if you wanted to move out of your growth and because you didn't want to have any growth as it turned out from the beginning of the year, but by the time you got ready to sell the growth and move into value, it was probably a little too late. It's a little too late. So having some of these other tools that are kit at our disposal and then when you get the right kind of time to execute the bigger asset allocation changes, that's something that we continually learn through these processes and these markets. All right. And our closing minutes here. So one more question is, so we've touched upon kind of the big concern for investors and advisors this year has been inflation, of course, what the Federal Reserve has done in response to that. Maybe you think the narrative is going to shift next year to are we going to have a recession and if so, how much is going to impact corporate earnings. So what are each of your take on our chances of recession and if so, what kind of impact will that have on corporate earnings and expectations of corporate earnings? It's bad. You're #1 again. Well, you know, higher interest rates affect corporate borrowing. Higher commodity prices, less supply, which forces higher prices, all those things are factors that eat away of earnings. And we've seen some wage labor expense expansion that's going to eat into earnings and. I think there's a good chance we're going to go into some form of a recession. It's hard to say how how broad or how bad it's going to be but there is going to have to be a slowing of the economy and that's what the Fed's been trying to do here with raising rates and and you know Kim's point is well taken. This is one of the when one of the largest ever rate increase cycles compressed and it's just something that every sector in the equity market, every sector in the fixed income. Market has had to deal with and you know the housing market, everything is being affected when you figure interest rates went from 3 to almost 6% on a 30 year mortgage within a matter of what, four months, five months and that's just mind boggling. So I think there is a good, good, good chance we're going to go into some form of recession. Kim yeah, so a couple, I'll take those in order. So the inflation, we think inflation has peaked and it is rolling over tomorrow we'll get the core PCE D for October that's the Feds preferred I think the streets looking for 4 1/2%. So you know four and a half 4647 something there that comes in that's a lot more manageable than the CPI headline number in June that was nine plus and and I think a lot of the you know you've got oil that's basically flat. On the year now gas is only up 3 1/2% year over year. So a lot of these inflationary boil has come off tremendously. It means the Fed has is their jobs working, it's working. As far as the recession, we've our base case has been that we've been going through a rolling recession and that it's a growth recession. It's not a hard landing like people look like if they want to use the analog for O8O9, we do not see that at all. So we see a mild recession this rolling. Recession where autos bottomed last year, housing you know topped in the beginning of this year and it's come tumbling down. Retail sales you know you had the inventory buildups that happen from Amazon and and Costco and Target and all the rest of them that was back in April. They're working through those inventories now. So there's rolling recession we think it's equals mild and one thing that I'll say before I give you on the on the on the EPS side the Philly Fed has something called their. Anxious index. They've been running this since 1968. OK you look at the most recent one. They ask people, it's a couple of different things but they say forward four quarters chance of a recession. It printed the highest ever all time high for next year for a recession. I'm a contrarian and when I see that come up there I say boy, Mr Market loves to confound and and and complicate things. You know they like to make it the most difficult for people. So if everybody's expecting. In a recession that means it's probably been priced in already so and and I think people fear the R word because they think are I'm going to get tattooed when it happens. Let's not forget we went down 27 1/2% from peak to through to the lows in October. That discounted a lot. So as far as the earnings I I have a little different take where COVID got for 2020 and 2021 CEO's wanted to survival mode. When you go into survival mode you. Clean all. You cull the herds and you clean all the excesses. And this year you're now seeing for the tech guys they're starting to fire people. Finally CEO confidence dropped the most in the shortest period of time ever on record. Ever on record. CEO's don't sit down and spend money like drunken sailors when they're scared to death. OK. So I think these these guys that the earnings decline. We're going to have flat earnings next year, at worst flat earnings. And you know a lot of people think it's going to be down but I think these CEO's. Gotten their houses in order, and you could see a surprise from that. Excellent, very good stuff. Well, thank you, gentlemen. Again a great presentation. I look forward to the Ascent Conference in February where you're both going to be at allowed to get you on a panel and then we can start duking it out on some sector calls too. So that should be a lot of fun. Also, I do want to thank each of you, also want to thank everybody while watching this live. I do realize we had tough competition today, at least during the live broadcast. We had a little World Cup match with the USA, so and it just ended now. So the USA did win, they're going to the next stage. For those who didn't know and and so exactly right on and coming in December, we have a replay of 2022's most popular recipe, the Downside protection portfolio, probably not a surprise given investor sentiment this year. And again, thank you for your time and trust in Orion portfolio solutions. Thank you, gentlemen, and we will see you next month. Thank you, rusty. Bob. Thanks, Jim. Thanks, rusty. Take care. Thank you. _1732281609367