Good morning everybody. Welcome to today's insights from Northern Trust Web and R. My name is Katy Mixon on the chief investment officer for wealth management and I'm going to be your host for today's presentation. Please note that today's presentation is being recorded and you will be providing to the details for accessing the recording at the conclusion of today's presentation. And just a reminder, if you have any questions for our speakers, please submit them through the QA widget on your screen. Or you can send it to contact northern at northerntrust.com. All lower case letters. So we're really looking forward to our discussion this morning, and I'm so pleased to introduce our distinguished panelists were going to hear this morning from Colin Robertson who is our head of fixed income. And we're also joined today by a long time friend of Northern Trust Doctor Myles Varn Doctor Barn is the CEO of Pinnacle care of personal health advisory firm and was previously the Chief Medical Officer at Pinnacle. He graduated from the University of Virginia School of Madison and he spent nearly 15 years as a leading. I'm urgency position at Inova Fairfax Hospital in Northern Virginia and doctor Warren has graciously joined us to answer client questions related to COVID-19. Now we have a lot to cover today clearly, so I'm going to get started by turning to our head of fixed income, Colin Robertson, and Collingwood that I turn it over to you to offer your comments on the current state of affairs in the fixed income market. Thank you Katie. Well, in a word I would say volatile. But there's more to share with respect to that, and other words would be liquid iti. And that's really the The True State of affairs in the fixed income markets right now is it's all about liquidity. And unfortunately what I share is there's not much of it, so. The fixed income markets all across the board. If we're talking municipals investment grade credit, high yield credit, the money markets illiquidity is is very very challenged across all aspects. One thing I would say is obviously the Fed has come in. With a number of programs that have been introduced to try and relieve some of the liquidity in the markets, most of it's targeted at the money market space for the moment and I'll share a little bit with you about that in a couple of minutes, but the bottom but excuse me, bottom line is we have not seen significant loosening in the fixed income markets, even since some of these programs have been put in place so. To give you some perspective. With respect to the widening volatility in the markets in the investment grade credit space. Five of the top 13 largest one day Widenings in the history of the market have happened in the last two weeks that really can put into perspective how dramatic movement had been. It's really been because there's just not a lot of buyers available and there's difficulty with price discovery, so you get a lot of inactivity and very few trades. So when that happens. Prices tend to go down and yields go up and again, it's uncertainty and illiquidity at this moment and less related to let's say true credit. Default issues or even credit. Issues that are considered fundamental to why the prices would go down. Now that said, liquidity issues can feed into credit issues and it's really the hope that at this point that that doesn't take place, but. We don't at this point necessarily have a a bottom of where things may or could go, so this uncertainty, this illiquidity, it's really the key to where we are, and that's why the markets are moving in such a volatile sense. I'll go to the money market space and again, it could very easily be. And dumb. This is really to talk about the state of the markets in general. They call that we're having today that I'm sure will be available for replay. The fixed income part of it could be obsolete by Monday. For all I know, that's how volatile the markets have been. That's how dramatic that moves in the market of death. So again, I wanted to mention the money market mutual liquidity facility that was announced this week. This is a facility that's to help provide liquidity to prime money funds. The reason that that's the space that needs to be discussed right now is because that's where most of the outflow from the money market funds has been has been out of the crime. Funding in the government funds, but there's other issues related that, but I'll talk about the moment. But the bottom line is, the facility is not fully functional yet. It appears that it's going to ease up some of the pressures with respect to liquidity in that part of the market, but quite frankly will will probably have a much better handle on that Monday or Tuesday of next week. It's just that it's so newly announced and so minimally used at this point that we just don't know. But That being said, in very quick fashion, we will know, so that's a good thing. But I did mention that this facility is there too. Top support the prime money market funds where they spent a lot of outflows. There's been a lot of inflows into government money market funds. Now this is good and bad. The good is that the government money market funds are obviously extremely safe. Just about the safest investment you could have, but is more. Money flows into those funds. Obviously drives down the prices of the securities that are bought for those funds in the short end of the market. So now we've moved into a case where even though the. That is going to keep interest rates per their direction at about 0 percent. They can't necessarily control where T bill rates go, and so if all the T-bills are being bought for the government money market funds that are being just inundated with with with new money that wants to invest there, we have an issue where that overnight rate like the zero. But the bill rates are negative. And then of course that's in a drive down the deal on the government money market fund too, so. Again, uh, everyone of these decisions as repercussions, and we'll have to see how it all unfolds. Hopefully some of that would be. Hum softened and mitigated. If the investors in the prime money market funds excuse me, see that there is plenty of liquidity, and so again, we'll see how that plays out. I didn't want to make it clear. I've been asked this a lot. Will the Fed go to a negative interest rate policy much like a lot of Europe? Obviously Japan and elsewhere I take the Petit their word that they won't do that, so I at least think in the very near to medium term. Uh, that concern that the overnight rate could go negative should probably be taken off the table. I'd like to address a high yield and also the municipal market very quickly, and the high yield market, which in the same type of illiquidity and stressed that I talked about with respect to investment grade bonds. There's been the widenings of 100 basis points or more. We've had four days like that within the last couple of weeks, which is extremely dramatic, but it's a similar situation to all the other areas of fixed income that I talked. Talk about so we can talk about the different asset classes were really the stresses in the asset. Classes are very similar and that's that's with respect to the fact that there's just a tremendous amount of illiquidity. So turning communities for a second. Smaller market at this point, probably the least liquid about a fixed income markets, but again, pretty much all in the same boat, but the bottom line is the UNI market is seeing a terrific amount of stress also. And certainly there could be some stresses there with respect to how the credits might behave in an environment like this that we haven't seen before. Lack of income for. My name's but the expectation is we might see some downgrades. Medium term could see some deferral of principle and interest payments, but at this point in time we don't project any type of mass default rates to be struck in the meaning market. So a very difficult time of aerial liquid time. But again, the likelihood of observing sort of an arm. Again, there we don't really see that being the likely outcome. It's just sort of in all of fixed income other than on the run treasury's. Looking for a place here where we can not necessarily see a bottom but just see some sort of more standard trading on a day or week. Involvement in both buyers and sellers and clearly just some, let's say settling in the market that gives investors the ability to say OK. I'm willing to look at what the price discovery is been. I understand where new valuations are and uncomfortable to invest in securities at these levels, so that's really where we have to get to. We're not there yet. The last two weeks have been the most volatile. Um in fixed income quicker than we've ever seen, and so the hope is with some of the movement, but it's bad and even just with respect to time that as the ensuing weeks occur, if we get some sense of normalcy, and that normalcy should also lead to normalize on what yield curves look like also, and give us an idea of how we can invest in the medium term and short term future. Great Colin. So it sounds like patience is very much a virtue right now in the fixed income markets and I want to remind our listeners that we are going to leave plenty of time for questions I know you'll have a lot, so please to those up and in the mean time I am going to. To turn the car over to doctor Brian Doctor Brian again, I'm so grateful that you have joined us today. This is an incredibly anxious time for our clients as everyone is dealing in a very personal way with this outbreak. I love to hand it to you for some comments around your perspective. Thank you Katie and and thank all of you for allowing me to spend a few minutes with you today. I know this is a disruptive time I know it's an anxious time for everyone, but I hope. That at the end of our conversation by arming you with facts that you'll feel better about where we are and where we're headed so. I just wanted to take a few minutes to talk about how this happened. So a pandemic in general takes two things a virus has to jump from an animal to human, and then it has to spread from human to human. In this case, the animal is a bat and that you all knowing who on China was the origin, and in that province it began to spread human to human, and then from there to other countries and now Europe in the US are in the middle of it. So what are the characteristics of this virus? Dekoven 19 or coronavirus? Who first if you compare it to influence a seasonal influenza? It's more infectious, so for every one person who gets this bill. In fact 2.5 people. For influenza Prairie a people who get it 9 more people are infected, so we talk about or not or coronavirus. It's 2.5 for seasonal flu, it's 1.3. It's also more lethal. It has, across all age groups according to the New England Journal's recent article. But the twality rate of 1.4%. Where is flu? Influenza has a fatality rate of .1%. And to take it in perspective, in the US, this year, 36 million people have been infected with influenza, 370,000 required hospitalization and 22,000 people have died of influenza. So you have to look at it in perspective in terms of the impact. Influences is always impactful and this year is no exception. Even in the middle of this. So what are the symptoms? What are we looking at here? So Fortunately for most of us, 80% of us this will be a mild elements that will come and go. Approximate 20% have no symptoms whatsoever. That's part of the challenge is knowing who might be infected and who isn't. If you do develop it, this is what she you should look for in terms of symptoms, so 89% will have fever. 80% will have dry cough. 20% will have muscle aches and fatigue. Sore throat, runny nose are not as much a part of this, so you're looking for lower respiratory symptoms in theater. Come there like. It just to put this in perspective in terms of the severity, so today and now there are 14,090 Casey. 14,020 six of those are considered miles. These are active cases today 60 four people patients are considered considered serious or critical, so again for most of us. Gonna find is that this will come and go. In especially for children who don't seem to be impacted, this will be something that has has minimal effect, except obviously the complete disruption of our lives. I needing to socially isolate schools closed, etc. So risk groups. These are the people who should be concerned. Unfortunately, it's a virus that is not friendly to people who are older. So that was older than 60, those with underlying cardiovascular or pulmonary conditions need to be careful. Quite honestly, all of us in society and what we're doing today are doing this to protect those risks groups. We all have your interest in mind in in this is truly a community effort to protect you from this virus. So why are we all in lock down mode today? Well, there was a report to a good study that came out of the Imperial College earlier this week by Guiding Niall Ferguson. And it did modeling based on what's known about the virus and it spread. And it talked about whether mitigation. Versus suppression would be a strategy, and mitigation means that you let it go through the population, but you control the rate of infect infection. So In other words, you try to slow it down. And originally, that strategy was what we practiced here in the US with the Italians did. Unfortunately, if you look at the models, the fact is mitigation really isn't going to help keep us from reaching that critical threshold of critical care resources in in the US or the UK. According to this story. So mitigations, not a strategy that works with and exceed our capacity to help those who are sick who need Ventilators who need critical care, so suppression it turns out may be the only strategy. And and I will say, this study has assumptions that are challenged by others, so it's not necessarily definitive, but it is a good study. So suppression means that we essentially sheltered home isolate ourselves. We don't go to school. We don't go to work. In that strategy, if you look at the models clearly keeps us under the threshold of. Critical care resources. We will not exceed our capacity in this country. If this strategy is effective. Downside is, it takes awhile for this to work, so. What we're looking at is probably a Peach caseload somewhere around the middle to end of April. And a fall off to 0 new cases sometime toward late June or July. So Lastly, I'll just mention that there are some good news meds out on the horizon. There are studies using a drug called room disappear, which seemed to be affective. They're vaccine trials now underway. One just started up on the 16th of March here in the US. And there are studies looking at clora, Quinn, and hydroxy chloroquine, which are fairly common drugs, usually used to treat malaria or rheumatologic conditions that may have some promise. So let me pause there, Katie and I'll, I'll let you take some questions. Wonderful thank you so much doctor. Von, I really appreciate appreciate your comments as I know our listeners do before we move to the Q and a portion of our time together. I want to remind folks on the phone they should see a survey on the side of their screen and would really appreciate your feedback to help guide us around future events. So please let us know your feedback on today's event now. We've received a number of questions already. But if you have a question for our speakers, please do submit it through the QA widget on your screen or send it to contact at Northern Trust com so doctor Rhonda first question I'm going to talk to you an it looks sort of along the lines of how you ended your formal comments related to some of the treatments, whether it's vaccines or any viral's on what is a realistic time frame for when some of these might actually become available. Yeah, so the vaccine trials that's underway in Seattle. Signed. Wait trials work in the US. You have to prove safety and the right dose and then you expand that into more people. So we're in the safety and right does fades. And as you look at this trial there 45 people who will be enrolled in there three different doses, so they're divided equally into those three different doses. Each person will get a vaccine a day One, and then another dose at Day 28. At Day 57, which puts us approximately mid mag, they'll they'll draw blood and check for antibodies to the virus. If the vaccines affected will see antibodies in those people, an will know which dose is the right safe, those to use in a vaccine. If that's successful, the time to market you know making this available 1st at risk people and then to the general population. It's unclear you, I'm sure you've heard 1218 months, but I believe that that time frame will be accelerated. And if you look at H1N one in 2009. The time to to get this out to market was approximately 1215 weeks. So we don't know for a fact, but I believe with all the resources, political, financial, health care cyantific that are being devoted to solving this problem, I believe that will get to a vaccine in less time than what's been predicted by historical measures. But that would be great news. Doctor Varn. I'm going to send our next question to Colin Colin. You covered in your comments from some issues surrounding the muni bond market, particularly around liquidity, stressing the market. Most of our clients have their list control assets and muni bonds. How are you and your team thinking about the potential economic damage from all the social distancing and some of the measures? Actually, the doctor von mentioned. How much is going to impact state and local budgets, and are you anticipating deeper credit issues in the muni space? So we don't really anticipate significantly deeper issue. Deeper issues in the credit meaning space. The biggest issue for us right now is the lack of liquidity that said. Are downgrades much more likely than they were weeks ago? Absolutely, but I think What's more important. With respect to the concern for downgrades, would be defaults, and we don't think that there would be a dramatic pickup in defaults. Probably the worst case scenario in the investment grade space is and this would be that were sort of expecting markets to be more normalized even by late summer and economies to start to pick up again by late summer. So I'm not talking about in the very very near term, but the expectation again would be that long term default should be very slim and again I mentioned it much earlier, but. Increased broad possibility or probability that some. There's a couple of delayed or a few delayed principle and interest payments, but not a massive issue of default scenario. Great, thank you and I think those comments related to late summer are really consistent with Doctor Lauren just mentioned related to the flattening off of the infection rate in the US being potentially sort of late June July, so certainly consistent there. Doctor learned that another question here for you. Really good question. You know all of our all of our listeners are getting inundated with information on an ongoing basis through traditional and social media around COVID-19. But everything seems to be moving so quickly and people are having a tough time figuring out what the key priorities should be. I'm can you distill, sort of into a top three list. The best practices for people to keep themselves and their families safe given the current circumstances. Yeah, and I would say the CDC is a wealth of great information as a reliable source, so if you're looking for one place, that's what I would recommend. So three things. One is you want to stay away from people at risk. That's that's actually 1, two and three. But Secondly. For your own sake, you know the way you prevent this mostly is by hand washing practices. Wash your hands for 20 minutes. And Thirdly. You know he wants to obviously spend time with your family and and so forth, but you need to limit your Contacts outside of that. Right now we don't have the ability to do widespread testing, and if we could, we would know you know who to to look at in terms of who they contacted and etc. We don't have that ability. I think we will in the next couple of weeks, so you really have to distance yourself from people. Very good good guidance. You know a related question, Doctor Varn were getting from, you know we have a lot of clients who are sitting in very warm areas of the country and are typically very popular places to visit for extended family. So we've got some questions around whether it's a safe time to have children and grandchildren visiting from out of town. Yeah, that's that's an interesting question. So if you look at the Chinese data, this spread from children in households to adults. Was not significant in, you know. Some people believe it may just be that children are so a symptomatic that you don't know that they have it when they spread it. So one theory is that that being around the kids is not a risk. But we just don't know because of the way the testing was done, whether kids Carey it in an asymptomatic way, we know that it has very little impact on him, even if they are sick. So my recommendation is if you are older, you really should probably still, until we have more data, isolate yourself from grandchildren. Good good advice. Thank you. I'm calling. We have a lot of questions for you. Um, here's one. the Fed ECB and Bank of England and all these other central banks have announced extraordinary measures aimed at supporting markets. Do you think these measures are enough, or do you expect more to come? I do expect more to come, but in in Full disclosure they are. They are running out of things that they can do. That said, it is there. It's their best plan and I respect that. I mean, a good example is the Fed with where they were a few weeks ago, and then you got the commercial paper funding facility to primary dealer credit facility, the money market, mutual fund, liquidity facility. So they're going to try more and more things. As you know they, they've gone to great lengths to protect the repo market back in October, there was a big concern that the repo market was going to be the Canary in the coal mine of issues in the market. Little did we know that it was going to be sort of a non event versus what we're going through now, but the bottom line is I would expect the central banks to continue even if they're pushing on a string, even if it's having only minimal. Impact, they would be unlikely to run the risk of just saying we're sort of done here, So what else I mean, could we get to the point where the feds buying corporate securities or Steaks and equities? I mean, I, I don't think anything is off the table anymore, so we'll see how markets improve in the next few weeks or so. but I can't imagine that it's were sitting where we are with respect to liquidity issues in the market. 2 weeks from now, exactly where we are today, that, uh, there won't be more thrown at it in in numerous different forms, right? I mean sometimes the message is as important as the action, so just getting the market to a place where they can be confident investors can be confident, less liquidity will be there for them. So get getting that confidence back. So that's that's super important. Related question. Colin, you mentioned money markets during your formal comments. Do you spending and now we have this bed facility supporting crime supporting commercial paper? Do you see the potential for fees and gates to be implemented in non government money funds and primer? Meaning money market funds. Well, I don't think that some you know the preferred path. So just to get my view, I would say less likely, but that's sad. I think it would also depend on certainly peers and other fund families and the pads that they take an I I can't control though, so that's it's a very good question, but tougher to answer because some of the conclusions are maybe out of the control of what my view would be. And then assuming it's made for you, so um again, I don't think that's a desired path by anybody. But it's like everything else at this point in time. It's not off the table. Indeed, doctor von let's turn to you. Here's a here's a very good, and it's actually a very common question that we're hearing quite a bit in that is. There are varying opinions on when infections could begin to Abate. You mentioned the summer, uhm, do you think either scenario is more plausible and it kind of relates to this perception or? Theory that potentially warmer weather in and of itself. So time of course, but normal warmer weather will suppress the virus or kill the virus. Yes, OK, we know that you know, with seasonal flu it tends to burnout. Is warmer weather comes around, so there's hope in that regard. And we also know that. The virus in the lab is less stable in heat and humidity, so there's that, but we just don't know yet whether or not that will have the impact that we all hope it has, but there is. There is hope that it will. So here's another really good question, Doctor Barn. Don't hear the question when you talk about underlying conditions. Is there a difference between those that have underlying conditions but are adequately controlled versus those that have the same underlying conditions that are not well controlled by medications or other treatments? So are you more susceptible with these underlying conditions? If they're less in less in control? I you know the data doesn't really break it down and not to tell him in my data I'm talking about all the experience from published by the Chinese equivalent of the CDC. It doesn't break it down, but but what I will say it shows is those with cardiovascular disease and that includes hypertension, coronary artery disease, vascular disease. Those folks are the most at risk. The second group are really those with. Pulmonary issues, including. Be or empas EMA and asthma. You know it. It makes sense that if you are controlling your conditions that you're less likely to to end up in a position of needing critical care resources. No question about that. We just don't have the data broken down and in that kind of detail to be able to say definitively yes or no. OK Great, I'm calling let's turn back to you here we have a number of questions on credit credit quality, particularly with respect to investment grade. In high yield, you mentioned how spreads have really wide, and in both of those areas, in some cases sort of his historical pace. So why don't we start first with investment grade credit where we've seen spreads widen across the across the board. But there's even widen pretty dramatically in the very high quality investment grade space. What's your perspective on credit in investment grade and do you think that the lower quality investment grade I credits are susceptible to downgrade, which would push them out of a lot of portfolios and into a high yield index? And that's for those listeners. That's sort of what people are calling fallen Angels. Sure, well, with respect to the fallen Angels, what's occured in the last few weeks and the expectations of the market of where credit is going to trade? My opinion at this point would be that the fallen Angel conversation. It's inevitable that we're going to have some fallen Angels. Might not be, uh, the answer that one would want it here, but I think she actually it's it's absolutely the true answer. What I what we're seeing about the investment grade in high yield space is a very flat credit curve. Historically, that's not a good sign and for me to describe that. That means that basically the spread of a short-term investments in a corporate. That same corporate with a longer term maturity, the spread the same. That's not normal. That's not favorable, and, um, it tends to. Be a precursor to downgrade. So I think the the increase in the default rate will happen. The increasing downgrades is likely to happen, it's just going to be the magnitude of it and that's why it's hard to tell right now. And quite frankly, you know a lot of what's going on. In the building the markets and still related to the virus and you know where we're going to end up on. With respect to the economy with concerning the virus, so once we can sort of get back to a sense of normalcy, that that will be better for the credit markets. But as of right now, it's a free fall, because, again, there's no liquidity and there's a total lack of certainty of what the next weeks and months look like. So thinking about that in relation to high yield, you know we've been proponents of high yield in our client portfolios for quite a long time successfully. So what's your perspective on the high yield market now? Or is it more patience is a virtue? Let's wait and see how this shakes out and you know, it's very difficult to kind of pinpoint forecast right now. It is difficult to forecast, but that doesn't mean that not sure. Certainly when shy away from, uh, what the thought process would be in it would be more than its patients. I mean, the yield are worse than high, yield is almost 11%. Again, historically, but this is a different time in history as we all know, but historically those have times like this with that type of. Not only go to worse, but more specifically spread, which let's say it's 900 ish as an oas have always presented themselves as an opportunity. I think the difficulty for investors in the high yield space right now is how much further could it go, and so that certainly, as you mentioned, is where patients becomes more virtue because. I don't like anybody's talented enough to say, I completely imperfectly picked the bottom, so for high yield investors, who you know can be enough for the long haul. This this is certainly. For some, even though I think it would be hard to see through the smoke, but for some would probably identify this as as as a time period where there's great opportunity, what happens in in high yield and there can be no fears because of defaults. But the point here is that as long as you're investing with a portfolio manager, fund or any TF, that's highly diversified. The higher expectations the default already priced into the security so. It's not as if the 10.75% yield to worst assumes that everything is gonna be better tomorrow. It's actually assuming number of bad things happening which are priced into the return, so it's a tougher pill to swallow. One way to look at it, but but ultimately a lot of bad news is priced in. You made a really good point earlier. Colin when you said it's like there's a buyers strike so there aren't buying bids on the table and the sellers in many cases are forced to sell because they need to generate liquidity in order to meet. Whether it's margin calls or whatever have you so across. But it's not just high yield, it's not just investment grade. We saw this image longer data Treasury market, where some investors are forced sellers. They don't want to, they have to. In the mean time the buyers. A sort of waiting on the sidelines until, as you said, the dust settles are things become a little bit more normal. Do you think that's a fair assessment? Katie, I mean you really hit it spot on I, I mean literally where there is some liquidity in the market and it's still quite challenged is in the on the run Treasury. So even off the run treasurys have a tremendous amount of illiquidity in them. So yes, the the the. The investors that are are getting having the biggest struggle right now, or those that in this market are forced to sell and the problem is, as I would try to share is that it's always price discovery with each sale, so that makes investors even more nervous. That makes the traders in portfolio managers even more nervous and becomes a self fulfilling prophecy of really no activity. Current excellent, excellent point. I'm just super quickly. Can you let our listeners know the difference between on the run off the run treasurys? Oh sure, when you think about the Treasury market and where they issue 2 year securities 3, five years, Seven years, 10 year, 30 year when they reissue a coupon. Sometimes there's a new maturity date with a different coupon. When that happens, the previous Treasurys become what's called an off the run. So it's not the the current security that is most popular. Most liquid and come in. Previous times, the off the run securities would be a little less liquid than on the runs, but right now there's virtually no liquidity at all, so it just would be when you know you're watching CNBC or Bloomberg TV and and they're giving you an idea of what the 10 year Treasury yield. That's the on the run. 10 year Treasury and everything else around it, which could be 9 1/2 years or 10. 1/2 years is not be on the run. Perfect thank you. I'm doctor bar and I have some very good and very practical questions. I'm better popping up for you, so here's one. My family was a member of the patient advocacy group. What are the best ways that I can leverage this membership? Both preventatively as well as in the event that they do need treatment. So there are some resources available to bring testing into the home or to bring a position into the home to assess the situation, so I think that's one good way. I mean, if you can avoid being in or even near a hospital or Medical Center right now. You're gonna be much more or much less at risk, so I think that's one way or the other way is just information. You know our group. Other groups have research teams that look constantly at what's being published in Watts early stage, and so I think you can use those resources as an important form of answering your questions objectively and scientifically in last kind of. Related to the talking head environment. Good, good advice. I'm here's another question and this has become sort of a growing issue as economists and strategists are trying to forecast the future. Should we be worried that COVID-19 will return again in the fall after this wave is gone? Yeah, that's that's a great question, and you know if you look at the Imperial College model without suppression, it really shows that it comes back somewhere around October. But I think we have the advantage of being able to see what's gonna happen in China and in Korea. You and maybe in Italy as they start to decline. I think we'll see what's happening there first. To it. One of the theories is that we're going to kind of need to go on A. A one month on two months off kind of social isolation and social distancing but. Again, you know the hope is to get a vaccine out there, and once we accomplish that then we're all going to be immunized or we're all. Rest of us had will have had it and recovered and will have immunity and at that stage this is over. So Speaking of immunity that are one of the other good questions that we got was on whether there is any indication that you if you get a coronavirus, you build immunity. I mean I think we do have a large number of recoveries. Are other tests going on right now to see whether that prevents you from getting it again? Yeah, so there there are some anecdotal cases out of China where people were negative on their testing and then were found to be positive, supposedly reinfected, but I will tell you that those are rare, unusual. Most people who recover the password already of people will have immunity and then don't have to worry about exposure again, so. You know what will will solve that issue scientifically by drawing antibody titers and so forth in this country and will know the answer. But but I can tell you now, if you look at other similar. Of viruses that the vast majority will be immune. Great thank you Ann. I I think we have time for just one last question call and I'm going to give it to you here. Given the fixed income market is highly illiquid, what should we be doing right now with our bond portfolios, if anything with little trading, this seems to suggest to stay put or if you have incremental cash, perhaps this is a time to think about buying. Yeah, I, I think you don't have much choice to stay put with what you have in your bond portfolio. It it's not dissimilar to what I mentioned with the high yield market where I wouldn't with you know 100% certainty. Say you're going ahead and picking the bottom, but for those with you know long term timeframes. Clearly the valuations. I'm really moved to levels that are. I would say overtime look very attractive. I would add and this just happened seconds ago, so it's very timely as I did discuss. The money market. A mutual fund liquidity facility that would help out the prime funds as we were on this call. Expanded that to the municipal market. Obviously we have to see how this plays out, but that could be very favorable to the liquidity in the municipal market, but I think as much as anything it shows that the Fed is understanding where the stresses aren't. Trying to address them. So let's even say that this is not as favorable as I think. It would mean that they're probably gonna try something else, so it's almost as if they're gonna try try try until they're able to loosen up some of the stresses in the market, so that could be one of the most notable things that happened fixed income wise during these 45 minutes. Very interesting and so timely. Uhm, we are definitely in a whatever it takes environment now with regard to policy move. I just want to thank you so much. Colin. and I want to thank you, doctor Ron. As well as incentive. Very, very good, timely, very helpful discussion. Unfortunately we have run out of time, so we have to conclude today's presentation. I did want to mention that there are a number of resources available during this time of uncertainty and to get through these difficult times you won't really want to surround yourself with experts. And we hope you count us among them to find our latest insights. You'll find them on our website northerntrust.com or you can follow us on LinkedIn and Twitter. We hope you find these insights of value. I also want to remind you that if you missed any part of today's remarks, you may access a replay beginning tomorrow, March 21st at northerntrust.com backslash financial market updates. For further information on any of the topics discussed at today's webinar, please follow up with your relationship manager. When I want to thank you for joining us today, we appreciate your participation. Our next event is going to actually be Monday, March 23rd at 10:00 AM. My guest on Monday will be pan lucina chief do Sherry officer and head of our trust in advisory practice for Northern Trust Wealth Management. She's going to profile some of the Silver Linings related to the market conditions on as it might have a loss of some interesting financial planning opportunities. We hope that you're going to join us again and again. I want to thank you very much for participating today. _1597164063785
Title:Insights From Northern Trust
Date: Friday, March 20, 2020
Time: 10 AM CT
Duration: 45 Minutes
Tune into the Insights From Northern Trust webinar to hear updates, analysis and advice surrounding the global response to coronavirus.